фашистской силой

Best Hopes for a Happy New Year 2012.

As I see my fellow Arab emerge from the slumber, I can only hope it’s a real awakening. The picture so far remains a bit blurry, but it is not hopeful. The danger is that Arabs may only awaken from the stupor of secular fascists to fall into the deadly embrace of religious fascists.

Cave Semitii

I am fearful for the Arab people because of our Arab Nature. If we Semites have any redeeming qualities, it is our deep and spirituality and our passionate sense of honour and justice. If we Semites have any damning faults, it is our deep and spirituality and our passionate sense of honour and justice.

So, when our prophets said it was “an eye for an eye”, this was not a licence to exact retribution from those who offended us (and more). Rather, this simple statement was meant to reminds us all of our humbling equality before the Creator. Yet we often forget it.

And the clowns who (mis)ruled us forgot that while they acted as God incarnate. Some, like Gaddafi, may even have believed it. A few guys from Misrata reminded him otherwise. While no one can wish his end on anyone, but he who lived by the sword should expect to die by the sword (in the worse way possible).

So, good riddance to bad rubbish. Or, if you feel hypocritical, may they rest in peace and let’s turn the page.

And that was the easy part.

Trouble is, we may have many more pages to turn before our story even starts. Like so many other people over the course of history, after we get rid of the Czar, we still have to deal with the dung heap on which he stood, lest this dung heap take over. While those nasty clowns repressed liberals, they fostered and empowered even nastier forces in their dark shadows (ok, all shadows are dark, excuse the “balagha”). Those are the Bolsheviks of yore, the Khomeinists yesteryear… and today, we have Islamic Brotherhood, the Salafists, the National Religious....

Those secular fascists were only the first page. We now face those religious fascists. We need to turn many more pages before we get to the end of our story. And as we turn the pages, beware of our Semitic passions. With the easy enemy gone, we have to face the demons within us.

So, best hopes for 2012.

Better be careful what we wished for this year, we're on our way to get it... Unless we wise up.

The Dark Side of Altruism

... Long time no blog.

Then again, there's isn't much to really report. Yes, we had elections, then a new governement under a very Sad Hariri, a newer government under Mi-Kati who's making a lot of noise, while his government is on its way to selling Lebanon's soul.

Yet, Fundamentally, nothing has changed

The one change is the Arab Spring... Finally. Yeehaa. Allah kbir, Allah akbar. Yes, the bad ones are on their way... Now Bachar, Bibi, Nasrallah, the Mullahs: Almost done...

Tunis Tunest, Iran Natunest... Yet.

Well, it's a long way from the dreams of March 14, 2005. Bachar's only "Medium Well", and he still have some "game" in him, and a increasingly sophisticated communications monitoring system. So is Bibi, in spite of his similar performance, with Obama playing his usual speechifying figuring role, on home turf. It was even better than Bachar's; he even got more applause. More than the Knesset would have ever granted him. Nasrallah's still a bit "rare", and the Iranian clerics are only now marinating. But the natural (r)evolution that is taking place is ineluctable.

But its not all for the good

In his latest stupid rant, Patriarch Rai put his finger on it... But the concern extends beyond a few turbans, and in choosing among evils, he is only choosing evil. One would have expected Rai not to fall for such skewed choices... I'd like to see how he will "joumblat away" from all this...

And one of the drivers is: Altruism..

Fundamentally, however, his concern illustrates the dark side of altruism. His intentions are good. At first. Then something happens; it is reality? Is it hubris? Things take a life of their own, and intentions lead them... Well, elsewhere...

Good intentions make excellent paving material. Like all things that are taken to excess, altruism develops into a pathology, and "society's most pernicious troubles arise under its guise". We should recognise the dangers of good intentions, lest they lead us to more of the same.. Robespierre came soon after Mirabeau, Hitler followed Bismarck, Stalin succeeded Marx... The Mutazailites are not too far away.

Let's not forget that all those now shooting at Gaddafi were once cheering for him. Most of those now shouting down Bachar were once looking the other way when his father as pounding us. And most of us now cheering [Name of your favourite Lebanese Here] are all too happy to look the other way when he was comitting atrocities.

Altruism is good. But it often exploited by unscrupulous leaders who make us commit atrocities.

How can we guard against the dark side of altruism? In any situation where we feel impelled to help others, it is crucial to step out of our comfort zone and examine the arguments from the other side. We must be willing to learn, in as open-minded a fashion as possible, from those with whom we disagree. In some sense, this means applying the scientific method to our lives. Like scientists, we need to play devil's advocate and actively seek ways of disproving a hypothesis, asking ourselves if an act that seems unquestionably altruistic can have broader negative consequences

Our better nature can, and will, lead us to do things that end up harming the very people we are trying to help. So let us get rid of those dinosaurs.

But let us keep a close eye on ourselves.

So, now that the Arab Spring is gearing up, yeehaa. Allah kbir, Allah akbar. If you're in Syria, more power to you... And to Thuraya. If you're in Palestine, God speed; you're caught up between your own flawed leaders and shrewd enemies. In Israel, wake up, dudes; Leiberman's not what you claim to be about...

But if you're in Lebanon, enjoy the sidelines (for now)...

So pass me the Arak, O wise one... Today we drink, for tomorrow's serious matters will come soon enough.

اليوم خمر وغداً أمر

The Pitfalls of Power

It is often the case that triumphant powers develop tendencies that make them vulnerable to weaker challengers.

As they achieve repeated successes, they soon become to believe that, by constantly reapplying the same formula, they will continuously be able to achieve success by the same means. However, their once-novel methods soon become “conventional” themselves, and a form of “doctrinal complacency” sets, reinforced by the ever increasing success. Such was the case in July 2006, when Israel’s ossified, conventional thinking led to its defeat at the hands of a challenger who espoused novel, unconventional approaches.

This is the case of Hezb’O today; its victory in July 2006 led it to an increasingly dominant position in Lebanon. This “new dominant” shows signs of increased confidence in the value of its past policies, since they led to so many successes. Indeed, after July 2006, their demonstrations and tent city led to the blockage of the country’s normal processes, allowing a continuous land grab and now a power grab.

However, in doing so, Hezb is only exacerbating a “power dilemma”; the success of its offensive policy will create ever stronger incentives to strike first, since a successful attack will usually so weaken the other side that victory will tend to be relatively quick, bloodless, and decisive. This is what happened during their invasion of Beirut in May 2008, when it lead to cowing of Hariri’s, and more crucially, of Jumblat’s Druze.

As it continued in this conquest phase, Hezb has consolidated “internally” by eliminating or sidelining “barons”, and is now expand “externally”. Its “external” expansion is now carried out as part of the elections, in which they are leading Aoun’s electoral offensive in the Christian. Whatever the final result, ShaterHassan’s allies would be sure to score quite a few points.

But Iran’s power grab over Lebanon will be far from secure, and the downside will come soon enough; as the successes accumulate, Hezb’s doctrines will be increasingly informed by the rose-colored lens of previous victories. Repeated victories make this offensive approach an easier choice because of the belief in the possibility of quick victory as well as the belief that failure to act will expose them to unacceptable risk.

This doctrine of action will become increasingly rigid, and the party will become ever less likely to change and adapt. As previous victories are celebrated, a culture of victory is increasingly emphasizing certainty in outcomes. Because this certainty belies the complicated sets of factors that allowed victory in previous engagements, Hezb is increasingly developing a “static conception” of political struggle that does not allow for change on the part of its adversaries. Soon enough, those adversaries will learn to exploit the weaknesses thus exposed, exposing dominants to defeat at the hands of inferior parties.

Regardless of the result of this upcoming election, little will fundamentally change because of both the institutional dysfunctions of Lebanon and the contradictions of regional power equilibriums. But time may choose for all; not only will there be less Iranian cash in the future, but at the present rate of consumption and decline, Iran is facing oil shortages and may even become unable to export much more oil by 2014. true, Saudi Arabia is not doing much better, but they’re not the ones challenging the United States for regional dominance.

However, we’re still a long way from Kansas; if time is the fire in which we all burn, we Lebanese are the ones closest to the flames.

Monsters, Inc.

Our Lebanese “Our leaders” have much to teach the Great Colbert about government; judging from the uproar they generate, they have improved on the idea that “the art of taxation consists in so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest possible amount of feathers with the smallest possible amount of hissing”. The amount of hissing is irrelevant if the geese are busy hissing at one another.

For this reason, watching the Lebanese elections is discomfiting at first look. Almost everywhere political discussion appears geared “internally”, towards “consolidating” one's core supporters. Voting in that case becomes little more than a census, where real electioneering starts at conception, making sure the braying masses make enough voters, and guaranteeing that the economic system remains on the right side of failure to maintain them in a permanent state of patronage-enhanced servility. The only real debate is within middle class regions of Mount Lebanon, who happen to be mostly Christians. In that, they're leading the rest of the Arab world's elites.

A deeper look, however, reveals a less pessimistic view; those who once claimed Lebanon as the Switzerland of the Middle East forgot that our region has nothing like the German's federative obsession, the French administrative zeal, or the British legal scruples. We can only be as good as one can be in this cesspool of dictatorships, where the only country pretending at being democratic is ruled by one ethnic group at the expense of others. And no, I do not mean Turkey.

No wonder our search for consensus and internal stability is so elusive. At least, we're the only ones really trying, even if our model is far from perfect, or realistic. And so what if Nasrallah has missiles and Iran. Doesn't Lieberman have Tsahal, AIPAC, and a little more? I fail to see the core difference between those fine examples of Shiite tribalism and Jewish tribalism.

For the time being, our only hope is to try and maintain some internal power balance, by voting our heads rather than our hearts, to maintain our local overlords as much on edge as possible. The pie is shrinking, and their old ways of goose-plucking will soon have to change lest they run out of feathers... Or Until they weed themselves out of here.

Or, more probably, Until, that is, we're all emigrated from here. By “we”, I mean the middle class; the exodus of the Christians from Lebanon is only a symptom of the country's real tragedy, the absence of opportunities for the middle class, mostly made up of Christian, Druze, and Beiruti Sunnis. In the current state of affairs, there is little to do for all those who just want to earn a decent living, without the need to pledge allegiance to petro-mullahs or armageddon-evangelists.

But there's still some hope.

Spring Greetings

One Lebanese asks another; "Did you watch the solar eclipse yesterday". To which the other replied; "Oh, for us, it's going to take place Tomorrow".

Alas, under this grand talk of "diversity", we Lebanese hide real divisions. It would not be so bad if they were limited to arcane matters of religion or taste. In our case, we've moved beyond absurdities of calendar, we've each managed to move to different planets while living in the same country.

... I kinda like the part about numerous vacations, though.

But I digress...

I've had little to blog about over the past few weeks. I see little merit in either side of this sorry saga of ours... In the coming election, there will be no real debate of ideas, just a "conscription" of the electorate, as we're each pulled by the rival tugs of the regional giants; an Iranian-aligned "Shiite" party with money and "فهم", a Saudi-guided "Sunni" grouping with money and no "فهم", and a Christian salad of ex-warlords with no money and even less "فهم".

As for whatever secular "center" remains, we hide our hard earned money, as the looming global recession challenges our limited "فهم" of the world. In any case, whoever wins the current election will be of little real consequence; the real fight's taking place outside this ring. The best we can do is continue our bloody jockeying for position within our little square in the regional chessboard.

....March 14, 2005 is so far away ...

...Still, it's not all bad; we've got a few things going for us...