It always is.
Couldn’t he read?
Shater Hassan’s blunder would enter the annals of history as the greatest crime against
He assumes that the Israelis are tied up in knots, and thinks that the Lebanese are cowed. He also ignores the economic factor.
Early negotiations may comfort him in this feeling. And he is right in stating that amateur hour is not over, apparently.
Not on spread out guerrillas hiding in mountain or built-up areas.
As Lebanese Civilians get killed by “left-overs”, he can assume that his popularity will rise even more. It will be
2- The Lebanese Economy
The estimates of losses are “15 Billion, if not more”. No matter, Shater Hassan will compensate people with… Well, with USD 10,000 for each of about 30,000 families, I can see how USD 300 Million and change can be more than those miserly Billions; compare 300 to 15.
And it is “pure” money, no doubt. Move over, Rafic, here comes Shater Hassan the Builder; “that what had been demolished, friends will build it with untainted pure money”.
Actually, the recession may even be harder than "advertised". Many of our best and brightest left the country. At least more than 250,000; and were it not for travel restrictions, more than would have left.
As long as Shater Hassan stays, they are not coming back. And as long as the other idiots who oppose him do not get their act together, they are staying out. They do not relish living under Iranian occupation...
3- Lebanese “Unity” around the “Resistance”
Don’t bet on it.
Shater Hassan’s speech may be a pre-emptive move, against the noose tightening around his neck. At least, some powerful voices are starting to rise, King Abdallah’s, no less.
Many paid the price of the war, and Hezb’s arrogance is not well received, and the party is unpopular outside the Shiite community. They are viewed as oblivious to the suffering of others, and refuse to recognize any one's contributions but their own.
In this context, Shater Hassan’s speech was perceived as arrogant by many; the websites of Arabic news channel Al-Arabia may be a good place to look; to many, Hezb is no better than Irael. To some; بدأ يعترف بالهزيمة هههههههههه ...
And returning the "captives" may not do much good to Shater Hassan's image. There are still scores of Lebanese prisoners in
Nasrallah's “veto power” over the Lebanese government is now limited; Prime Minister Siniora’s musings about “private reconstruction” should be seen in this light.
The Lebanese may not tolerate a competing government within their midst, especially one carping to a foreigner, a “wali el-faqih” that few recognize as a "marja el taqlid", even in Iran.
For now, we wait...
Shiite “Unity” around the “Resistance”
Bet on it. For now; it depends how long the Shiites will accept Shater Hassan's monopoly over them.
A census by IPSOS-l'Orient-Le Jour has shown that, while 79% of Druze, 77% of Christians and 54 % of Sunnis wanted the militia disarmed, only 19% of the Shiites agreed with them. As a result, the country is split 51%-49% in favour of disarming the "resistance".
Shater Hassan was always good at manoeuvring. In today's context, his little chat on TV reminds me of
In a “tribal” context, many Shiites remain stuck following Hezb into a dead end. As the community fears for its future, it will “circle the wagons” around the leader, and in even threaten others. The party is already re-arming... Seig!
Unless more courageous voices come up against the great lemming-leader, we will soon be moving to a confrontation.
Some of Hezb's luminaries already claim that Hezb is even "Greater than Lebanon".
Now that's beyond Chutzpah...