Monday, August 07, 2006

The Bottom Line

One thing really matters; the United States and Israel. Their overriding concern is Iran.

Whatever happens to Lebanon should be seen in this light. The Iranians cultivated many Shiite groups all over the world, and Hezb was their crown jewel. With its arsenal of long range missiles, it was one of its main strategic cards.

Regardless of the early succces, this card has now been spent prematurely... We should note that the long range rockets, the "Zelzal", have not been fired yet; regardless of Hezb's early propaganda successes, is Iran having second thoughts? Or are those wily chess players holding back to see next moves?

The answer will determine HOW FAR Israel will push. With most of its population gone, Southern Lebanon has fallen militarily. Should Israel be willing to pay the "blood" price, it can easily push through and occupy the region.

We should consider additional parameter: Lebanon has yet to claw back its way from the war and the occupation. This war has caused far more damage than the 2 od 3 Billion US$; most private Lebanese investors who borrowed heavily for this tourist season, and they are now BROKE.

They may not look kindly on Hezb, whose leader Nasrallah publicly dismissed their efforts, hinting that their money was not "pure"...

No comments: