The root of
The interior ministry is divided, and the Army left to direct traffic, as each officer tries to consolidate his base. There is even a low level war already brewing among the different factions; witness the recent assassination attempt against the guy in charge of coordinating all the different factions.
I think this is symptomatic of a larger, deeper issue in
I am not even sure that there is a
Nothing to kill or die for?
It is not exceptional to rely on an outside pressure group. In our case,
But you need an "inside guy" to get
And no religion too…
As usual, each to his own; some call themselves March 14, but it is a long time that the people who made March 14 possible disavowed those incompetents. We’re back to the sectarian politics we so despise.
Nasrallah emerges from hiding, flush with his "victory", to herd the Shiites towards
In the absence of real ledership, the only hope remains the nebulous Diaspora. But it needs an “inside guy” to extert its power. Some thought that inside guy was Aoun; he has proven to be at least a disappointment, at best a betrayal. That guy is a lost cause, no more representative than Geagea; were the head of the LF no so hated, Aboul'Mich would be long gone...
As long as the Diaspora does not have an "inside guy" to give substance to its actions, there will be no
Imagine all the people…
Unnatural beasts, however, cannot last; the country, already very small, is literally falling apart; faced with the prospect of continuing the status quo, or go on their own, many will prefer to go on their own.
There could be many triggers, but I do not think too soon; the partners of such a macabre dance will need time to organize in the face of a Hezb on steroids. A tall order indeed; When it comes to number of people, the forces are equally matched, but on the military side, even if they wanted to, how would they train to match Hezb proficiency?
Depending on the logistics, the coming presidential election may either be a trigger, or it may delay matters a little. It would be ironic if those incompetents who rule us were to renew Lahouss’ mandate, unless they agree on some damp squid to replace him.
The current cold war with Hezb may then erupt into a full war.
Sharing All the… Oh, Heck
Who said humans would stop evolving?
Shiites increasingly identify with the supreme leader… When each “Volk” want their own “Reich” under their own “Führer”, it would turn to be an ugly, genocidal fight.
The UNIFIL, in that case, would only serve to keep the neighbours out while the children kill one another.
Or to keep the conflict from spilling over to the neighbours.
Or to serve as target practice for budding militias…