Tuesday, September 19, 2006

The REAL Debate Starts

The Debate Moves Beyond the Ivory Tower

I fear the "real" debate has only started. Not the one the may have pope intended; this one will be far from the ivory towers of academia.

The pope's remarks form an excellent alibi to motivate the masses. I would suggest investing in plastic keys futures; they are making a comeback.

As Hussein Nasrallah gears up for his great Reichsparteitag, Ali Khamenei started laying the groundwork. The Vali F... blasted the pope, and revealed that his "remarks against Islam are a dictat that the Zionists and the Americans have written (for him) and have submitted to him".

This will help motivate the troops; it is not a war to protect a couple of nuclear reactors, but a Jihad to save Islam. Onward Moslem Soldiers...

On their side, the French are making signs that the UNIFIL is not so FINUL; this time around, it means business. They got the Chinese in, and some russians; this may ensure that Hezb cannot use its top weapons, supplied by Russia and China, against UNIFIL...

More importantly, Turkey will also be contributing troops; not that I relish a return of the Ottomans, but their corner of the Empire has already taugh Syria a lesson in power, and still holds the key to much of its resources. Iran would also want to play nice with them...

In Praise of Cojones...

Still, all this maneuvering will not enough; let us hope that they really understand what they are doing, and are really willing to pay the price.

If they think that they can "avoid clashes [...] by demonstrating" strength, they have another thing coming. Those who are not cowed by Merkavas will not be impressed by Leclerck. And remember; when you face a man who does not shy from sacrificing his own son, you better have some brass cojones.

As their own sons deply in the line of fire, the West's resolve will soon be put to the test.


Iraq or Munich?

Hezb may already be in trouble; Aoun is already moving away from his "partners", back to his initial position... Nasrallah should have known better; if the Aoun's own supporters cannot rely on him, how could he?

In the short term, much will be clarified in Hezb's Rally; Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, will set the tone for the rest of the campaign... They can either move for political gain, or put their advantage further.

In the long term, any durable quiet will depend on the Israeli-Palestinian glacier. Let us hope it starts to melt...

At best, we could be moving, much like Iraq, towards a Geo-Civil War; looking back at this war's onset, we can still see little difference in each player's relative position. I did not much like the last one, and even less what crawled out of it...


At worst, Munich. The Beni-OuiOui's who claim to rule Lebanon could easily knowtow and make a deal, raising the share of the Mullahs. Much depends on Brammertz' work.. In this case, Hezb's coup d'etat would really have succeeded.

This is not too farp-fetched; we do owe the current mess to their brilliant election strategy, back in '05, when they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory...
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يِلّي بيشريك بيرجع ببيعك

As far as Hezb is concerned, this may not be a "Lebanese" decision to make; much will depends on Iran's planning horizon. Bear in mind that The Vali Faqih has not been forking out more than USD 500 Million, each year, just for Metwalis' beautiful eyes...

And do not expect the Israelis to help; are they confused? or simply duplicitous?

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

YO Jeha another Flamming hot post.

I have a couple of questions.

1) Is thier anyway that thoughful bloggers like you will be able to descredit the clowns.

2) Is thier anyway to shame the shia and sunni into getting rid of that silly as beef they got going on.
Mark Bey

Jeha said...

What?

And put all the bloggers out of business?

I guess it is a feature of our human nature; we did not evolve for the nuclear age...

Anonymous said...

@ jeha

Me and some of my friends came to the conclusion a long time ago that one man wants to feel better than the next man.

You are correct bieng selfish, hateful assholes is a part of human nature.

Jeha said...

As I read sites like "Beirut to Beltway" and "Free Cedar", I come to question some of my views; what I see as realism may be nothing but excessive cynicism.

There is a factor "X" in human nature that will always keep us from the brink. Maybe I should watch out for the effect of such a factor a little more.

Anonymous said...

@ Jeha

Jeha:There is a factor "X" in human nature that will always keep us from the brink. Maybe I should watch out for the effect of such a factor a little more.

mb: Yo Jeha I have been infected by the same cynicism. It has its roots in sadness and exasperated frustrations. You got a good blog keep doing your thing sir. Peace

issam said...

You made me laugh about the turks joining the UNIFEL. So you are telling me that the Syrians will let you alone this time?! :-)

Jeha said...

Not necessarily,

But the Syrians will leave the Turks alone, or risk losing 80% of their water, and up to 30% of their electricity....

Ocalan can testify to that kind of power...