Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Role Change?

1982:

Israel invades Lebanon.
Terrorist attacks in Lebanon, and foreign leaders visiting Syria to kissup and jawjaw.

2006:
Israel invades Lebanon.
Terrorist attacks in
Syria, and foreign leaders visiting Lebanon to kissup and jawjaw.

OK, there were Syrian-Inspired recent terror attacks in Lebanon, aside from Israel's massive campaign.

But Syria's attacks against its Lebanese opponents do not really count; in the Great Game, small fry like us were always fair game...

Apparently, the best Syria can do in Lebanon is try the odd sneaky cowardly attack, a few demonstrators hiding behind the Lebanese flag, and maybe speeches against the Siniora government.

So, what is happening there? The story raises even many questions... much of it does not fit; it seems that Bashar is reading Hafez's book backwards.

Four guys on a suicide picnic?

Why four guys when one is enough if the others can provide cover? That's how things are done, as I recall.

The driver is alone, and a supporting team provides logistical support and guidance, and if needed, logistical support. In some cases, the driver need not even know he is on a sucide mission; for all he knows, he is just storming the gates to support an attack...

This one does not fit any "normal" pattern.

Location, Location, Location

Why attack when there is no one home?

Is the damascus regime too weak now to carry out its terror attacks outside home turf? In that case, such attacks only showcase the regime's weakness... Pourquoi cracher dans la soupe?

Thanks to the Lebanese Lobby, the big picture gives us an additional perspective. It seems the Assad residence is right next door.

This one was too close to home, indeed.

Location,

Location,

Location...

Do they plan to do another one in Beirut?

They did this with the Danish Embassy thing, back in February. And they still have a few people on site in Lebanon...

So far, however, it all seems to backfire: the US, without accusing Syria, is starting to pull out its staff. Shadenfreude...

2 comments:

Brian C. Ledbetter said...

Jeha, do you think this was merely a training session? Or some kind of distraction?

Excellent questions and analysis! Thanks for the article!!

Jeha said...

With Syria in this confused state, I am not sure anymore.

I am sure of one things; Alawis play rough. They have been subdued, oppressed, humiliated, ostracized, since the days of Alexander the Great.

Now that they hold power, they're not getting off that easy. They have made much progress now, but would not even comtemplate sharing it.