We are already in the midst of a wider conflict within “Greater Syria”, to borrow a National Socialist term. The extent of it depends not on the
1- The visit is either it a last chance effort, or a case of the Europeans are really "blinking first", in typical 9/10 fashion. My money is on the latter, but we'll soon see effects in
2- The Republican electoral rout, in a region ruled by autocrats, may be misinterpreted as a sign of weakness; over here, a ruling party never loses elections.
If, through the national dialogue, they "add" Aoun's ministers to the Lebanese Cabinet, then I may mean that the Europeans indeed "blinked" and compromised with
I am not sure how this situation will remain sustainable, seeing how much cash Syria gets from Iran; the only way to make up for the shortfall would be to let Syria back in control of Lebanon's juicy morsels. We could also see our "leaders" selling out more of us to the Syrians, in order to cover their hide and get back in the graces of
The Fox in the Henhouse
Otherwise, if it was a "last chance" effort, the ball would really be in
We would have to expect at least some continuation of the low-level disturbance and economic morass, at worst "going to the streets". In the latter case, Hezb and
On purely military terms, Hezb is now geographically and economically "limited". Geographically. They have tried a repeat during their demos before the July War, and it showcased their limitations; they attacked both Moslem and Christian neighbourhoods. They only succeeded in proving that they had no sense of humour.
If Hezb moves against Christians, all Christians will side against them, and a quickly form a new alliance with the Druze. The Sunnis will remain on the sidelines, except by providing funding and localized support, and the war will be confined to
If they move against Sunnis, then all Sunnis will side against them, but the Christians will remain on the sidelines at first, divided between Aoun/Frangieh and Geagea/Gemayel. This will not last long; this type of Sunni-Shiite conflict can easily spread to
Actually the civil war may have already started, but in cloak and dagger mode.