A new civil war in
I do not know. But I know one simple premise: no Shiite will be allowed to topple a Sunni prime minister. As you watch events unfold, recall this brutal mantra.
The message from the Sunni powers is clear; the low Christian participation to this jamboree ensured that this is perceived as a purely Shiite affair. This means that, having “lost”
Yes, March 8th has been able to show up some real numbers, but no one said Hezb was not organised. But most of their followers will soon recognize how much of an oxymoron a conservative revolution really is.
The outline of a “deal” was hinted at by Minister Marwan Hamadeh at his Al-Jazeera intereview. It is a deal in four parts:
- Aoun is out. Period. The absence of most Christians from the Jamboree has rendered him irrelevant. Let us hope the Christians, most of whom rallied around “March 14th” are not betrayed again by their “March 14th” allies. Otherwise,
- Berri has a limited time offer to go back to the ranks. Otherwise, they will be out of power permanently, and their followers will have to give up the empty promises of patronage.
- Hezb has a VERY limited time offer to come back to the ministry. It may have already expired. Watch Hariri’s Future TV, one of their slogan is directed against Hezb’s ministers;
وحياة يلّي راحو ما بترجعو!
The Lessons of History
Christians once followed a single leader, flocking around Aoun; they got a 15 year “stay out of power” card.
The Shiites would make the same mistake by flocking around Hezb, his “jusqu’au boutisme”, and his promise of martyrdom. All this requires money. Dinero. Money does not grow on trees, and
Yes, Hezb has weapons. But no Sunni power would allow for a Sunni defeat in
A necessary Evil
For now, those who rally around the government will remain. Most of us consider them to be an acceptable evil; corruption for corruption, we still prefer the Lebanese kind.
March 14th is not one-dimensional. When we all took to the streets on March 14th, it was for a very complex reason; simply put, we want a normal country, with a normal, accountable government, and normal politicians.
It is called CIVILization. It was born here. Time it came back for a visit. Otherwise, the airport is still open. Alternatively,
They say that if you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. In our case, it is not the heat that we fear; we have the scars to prove it. It’s the food that stinks.