Sunday, December 10, 2006

D-Day (?)

The forces are gearing up for heightened confrontation, and the outlines of the solution to the “14+8” equation will be clearer over the next few hours. So is it D-Day for the Government?

Reality

Notwithstanding the grandstanding of our local grandees, the real decisions are being made in Teheran, as I pointed out in other posts. They now have to contend with veiled threats from the Saudis and Sunni powers, allied to an increasingly worried United States.

The Iranians’ increased assertiveness appears to underlay their underestimation of the Arab motivations. The “locals” are gearing up for confrontation; there are quite a few “muscles” among the crowd, with blocks assembled to provide for stones, and reports of ladders and police uniforms that could be used to storm the Serail.

Perception

Pace Aoun, the orange colour does not go with a few “types” that appear within the crowd. This is perceived as increasingly a Shiite affair, with some Sunni, Christians, and Druze fig leafs. It is in that sense that King Abdallah’s warning must be seen.

In that case, Hezb will grossly miscalculate if they plan on storming the Serail, and hide behind women, children and kids. They will only be more targets to a cornered, mostly Sunni armed force stationed around the Serail.

However, Hezb is in a quandary. If they do not storm the Serail, their “revolution” will most likely peter out, as a series of civic disobedience actions will loose them much popularity, and as Lahoud's obstructionism becomes ever more glaring… Their Hypocrisy will then be their own undoing.

For all practical purposes, Aoun is on the ejection seat; the Christians are not as tribal as Nasrallah’s followers, and will not follow a loser. Especially not one most think has betrayed them.

It think that this picture captures the MAJORITY mood; “it Does not Die” under a poster proclaiming "I Love Life"

So most wait this out... Beirut will live on, as this mural asserts, but it has already been irrevocably changed. Time will tell whether is it all for the best.

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