Sunday, December 24, 2006

No Mass Moussa!

The Arab mediation was supposed to drag on… but all of a sudden we hear that No Mas Moussa… To the paranoid in Iran, It may look like a three pronged assault; “Last Call” for a deal?

Last Call for… Iran

The Iranian agenda is what really matters now in Lebanon; the Mullahs want their bomb.

The United Nations moved surprisingly fast, albeit with watered-down sanctions, under Chapter 7… Hormuz matters too much to let Mullahs hold a bomb to the world’s Jugular. And Iraq matters too much to let it become Farsi country… And the Mullah’s riches are far from endless

It may take them more time than Lebanon can afford, but we never mattered; in Lebanon, Iran is holding an expandable hostage, and in Hormuz, one who's not hers to trade

Last Call for… Syria

Many think that the outlines of a “deal” had been offered to Bachar; Trade in some outfits such as the PSNS, with their history of violence, in exchange for some leniency. But it seems that the doctor does not see it that way; maybe he gets some comfort from the way his friends at the BBC covered the story, and from some tired “think tanks”.

As a sign of intransigence, his minions are doing a lot of spin, and are now accusing Israel (who else) of being behind the whole thing.No doubt those pesky Jews are also responsible for global warming (You read it here first, but it will soon be there).

In any case, all good things come to an end

Last Call for… Sunni-Shiite Reconciliation before Eid?

If the Hezb is really a "free Agent", this could be a very strong possibility, which offers a few advantages.

First, it will see off the challenge from Herr General. Christians will blame him for allowing Shater Hassan to take over of Christmas. His ex-Excellency dug himself in a hole, kept on digging, Diven by his spitefulness, he has tunnelled so far that he aligned with the same people he once fought against. Where he leads from here, few will follow. Franjieh is on more solid ground, thanks to his clan, and to his uncle Samir’s inability to unseat him from its leadership, but he has to contend with his own progeny

Second, the “Tartuffe” in Hezb could find a peaceful “way out”. They could also get some compensation in the form of more plum jobs for their followers. And in the leading role of “Dude, Where’s my community”, Nabih Berri may be able to wean himself of those who hijacked the destiny of the entire Lebanese Shiite community. Iranians may be Shiite, but they are not Arabs.

The trouble with following foreign masters is that other citizens do not like it.

And no matter how much ammo they have, marionettes never hold the strings

Last Call for… Lebanon

A deal would save us some trouble, in the short run. But the long run is another matter;

First, it would be unsustainable. Such a deal could only be made at the expense of Christians and Druze; in the presence of a sectarian Hezb, a deal can only remain purely sectarian. While a Shiite-Sunni accord is strong enough to rule the country alone, the others would not sit idly by…

Second, there are the Americans. Does their “interest […] that Lebanon be stable and free of Syrian influence” still include a role for Hezb?

Coincidence, Coincidence… (Follow-up, Dec. 25, 2006)

Spare a thought for Mr. Nyazov, who did an Abasha the other day… Recce in Pace, Turkmenbashi. It coincides with Georgie’s phone call to his buddy Vladimir, who looked into his soul, and more into his wallet, and booked a trip to Saudi.

Expect a pilgrimage to Ryad to do wonders.

Spare a thought for poor Nabih Berri, who demarcated himself from Franjieh’s promise of escalation, albeit while keeping his masters happy. Even Hezb is getting cold feet. After Christmas comes Eid

Watch Tuesday’s LBC show with May Chidiac’s hosting of Patriarch Sfeir. The solution proposed by Bkerke placed everyone in front of their responsibility, and represents the last LEBANESE chance to a peaceful deal, and an effective investigation. If it is watered down, it will only be a mere respite…

In any case, even if they got their heads out of the sand, the Lebanese marionettes do not matter much; the ball is in the court of their Syrian and Iranian puppeteers, bearing in mind that now, the American and Saudi puppeteers have the upper hand.

Is anyone listening?


Cavalor Epthith said...

Wonderful blog. the major problem in the USA is that the voice of the people in the midst of the crises are never heard from in their corporate news. Mighty is the power of the Internet and it might save us all!

Qu'ul cuda praedex nihil!


Jeha said...

You're right, the internet will help us a lot. But more powerful than the big corporations and the huge governments is our lust for the mere pleasure of "panum and circemses"