Whatever the case, our plate is full. Here are Jeha's predictions for 2007;
The real question is whether it is able to function, prosecute the perpetrators and their masters, all of this within delays.
Expect more Mediation efforts; in the race to find the Assad clan some sort of figleaf, the diplomats will be racking up them air-miles…
The Kidnapped Lebanese
One thing we learned over the years is that Hariri mattered more that all the tears of all the mothers of
And no government will try to bring them back. Not in 2007. Not as long as there is such a thing as a Baath party. Aoun is not the only one with his 30 pieces of silve (Who could EVER stomach this latest dozy?).
It is a fact that Paris III is essential for Lebanon. Yet the proposed reforms are likely to be less than meet the eye; there can be no economic reform without drastic administrative reform. And this cannot happen without the decentralization agreed on at Taef. This means far less potential for patronage, in a country where 35% of the workforce is employed by the government, in one form or another.
Unlikely. Aoun is not the only one stuck in strange alliances; in opposing Hezb, Saad Hariri finds himself some strange bedfellows. Administrative reforms may simply mean that Sunni patronage will replace Shiite patronage…
Won’t happen. We will get an electoral law that will be more like “2000 Lite”. The Aounists are right that the past election was stolen. But they have chosen allies whose raison d’être is to steal, elections or other. His opponents steal too, but in a more sophisticated manner.
Everyone steals. The next election will be stolen as well. But not in 2007.
And why not? Why would our “representatives” give us a law that will allow us real choice?
Lahouss’ term ends soon. Before you rejoice to be rid of this "waste of oxgygen", recall how happy we all were to see the back of Gemayel. Then how much we all were grateful to see the back of Hrawi…
And the trend will continue, I have an idea of how they will pick the next president. And no, no matter how anal retentive he becomes, it will not be Aoun; Herr General may disagree, but he is more likely going back to Deir El-Salib…
All hail President/Poodle Ghattas Khoury?
Hezb will stay far from
This comes with a few of wildcards:
2- The kidnapped Israeli soldiers? It is likely that they are long dead. Their fate will largely determine that of the Olmert government, and of the tenuous peace in
3- The economy is doing so badly that, during 2007, there will be internal pressure on the government to crack down on Hezb… More and more people will start to beleive that a civil war would be cheaper.
Last but (unfortunately) not least;
The increase in
It will not give up the PSNS, no matter how nasty it is. Or especially because it is so nasty;
On the downside for
Light at the end of the Tunnel?
More like a train coming the other way…