Tuesday, January 23, 2007

... And so, It begins

If truth is the first casualy of war, it certainly dead long before civil wars really begin.

I apologize in advance, as some may dislike the tone of this post... In times like these I feel a little introverted as I brood over ancient themes (hence the many links to past posts). Even though I am not present in Lebanon right now, the mood seems to transmit itself telephatically. And now, it looks like my trip will be prolongued...

As I had expected

Yes, expected. Fellow blogger Solomon asked me once about how I would acted in the summer if I knew ahead of time. In a way, we all knew; in Lebanon, you can see things coming, and you can plan for such events, as long as you are not too invested emotionally. Interestingly, many of the businessmen that I have talked to were not expecting this to escalate till March, but few factored in the need for Syria to scuttle Paris III and the Lebanese government's trip there.

I guess you can never get the timing of those things right.

A line was Crossed Today

I have been commenting about this looming civil war in Lebanon for a while, and I am now becoming to sound like a broken record.

In light of Hezb's intransigence, whether it has really begun or not is now irrelevant; THE line was crossed today, with fights reported between security forces and Shiite partisans of Hezb, as well as between Aoun's partisans and Geagea's supporters.

Darwin Awards All-Round...

Rejoicing at the death of those poor morons may sound heartless to Politically Correct ears, but what else would you feel when you see a war among Syria’s ex-slaves whose main goal is to bring the massa back? May they rest in peace, and may others learn from their mistakes. While I am aware of the good intentions of many protesters, I am also well aware of their properties as a good paving material.

Like it or not, our descent towards this hell has accelerated, but the details are still a little fuzzy.

Fighting our Way Back to the Plantation

While I am still convinced that this government will not fall, I am increasingly convinced of the futility of this “opposition”, and that nothing will ultimately remain of our country's true soul, at the very least.

As I had posted before, I still see a silver lining in this cloud; Hezb's intransigence reveals an underlying weakness, and their escalation shows how little endurance they really have. Lebanon may lose much, but one thing is certain; as HassAoun crossed a line, and Lebanese Army may even be protecting them, but they sealed their own fate; Hezb and the Tayyar are already demonized, and the "Syed" is not Taboo anymore...

Alea Jacta Est

Back in December, the tone was already set. The Sunni reaction was not going to be passive in front of what then presented as a Shiite coup d’état. No matter how they "spin it"

HassAoun ignored the warning shots, dont acte:


R said...

Hi Jeha,

It seems you and I are always on the same page as both our posts (past and present) seem to indicate... This has been so predictable from day 1. At worst since november. Berri said it himself...


Jeha said...


And now, they are giving them enough rope to hang themselves, as you point out...

JD said...

Yes it is predicatble. The war is there somewhere, in a dormant stage. The reason is not really about representation in the government, or anything of that sort. For me there are two major reasons that make civil war quite inevitable: 1- The demographics are changing, and "free market", "democracy", "peace" and "sovereignty" are not on the agenda of the incumbent party (Hezbullah of course). 2-Let's face it: when after years of war people like Geagea and Jumblat still have a strong popular base, this means that people lost their sanity. Or did not get it back.

That is just disgusting.