1- We’re not at war yet, but not at peace either.
Hezb has overstepped his bound so much that others are itching to bring him back to reality. Shater Hassan has so overplayed “Shiite unity” that he is confronted now with a far more determined “Sunni/Chrisitian/Druze unity”. No wonder Shater Hassan is furious; while Hariri bests him at his own sectarian game, his allies Geagea and Joumblat give him "cross-sectarian" cover. Far better than his Aoun...
The “street” may already be out of control…
2- We’re not occupied by
If you need anyone to explain this concept, or if you need proof, you will never understand. Your mind is far too “adapted” to sophistrionics such as “Yes to Jihad, No to Civil War in Lebanon”, and you are too far gone down the road of "special relationship" nostalgia's. Fear not, this intransigence will Bachar’s downfall.
3- We’re not occupied by
Hezb is essentially an arm of the Iranian government in
4- Our Politics are Polarized, but there’s still a Centre.
The Centre abhors ShaterHassan’s fanaticism, Aoun’s antics and unprincipled alliance with the PSNS, Berri’s disgusting double-dealing, or even Franjieh’s sheer stupidity and almost blasphemy. However, the centre still remains uneasy with Geagea’s shady past, the blood trail behind Joumblat’s modern liberalism, Gemayel’s record of cronyism and corruption, and even Hariri’s perceived tendency to over-emphasise the great Rafik’s martyrdom (Nazek’s poem was a tad too long).
On balance, the centre chooses “March 14th/Feburary 14th”, but is far from according them blind support. In the sense, Aoun is correct to call his opponents “February 14th”, but he forgets that most of his supporters would rather be in that camp than aligned with
5- Politicians are "Free", but they're still Prisoners.
Prisoners of their “base”. In the
Once a “Something”, always a “Something”.
Nasrallah could defeat
Prisoners of their “alliances”. March 8th is prisoner of
I understand that you need a diamond to cut a diamond, but at the end of the day, what you’re still left with a diamond, albeit a different type.
In plain English; I am not so sure the Salafis that are today aligned with Hariri will prove more accommodating than Hezb. Indeed, many Christians are already voting with their feet, as so many Canaries in the coal mine (?)...
The "Lebanese” Standoff
The Mexicans invented the standoff, we perfected it. I am not sure how we will get out of this, if we ever could. Expect this Ubuesque situation to fester for the next 2 to 3 months, till the morons get their marching orders… And in the meantime, we keep on wasting lives, time, and treasure, and lost many good opportunities…