To those who watched Assad’s interview on ABC news have got an earful, but you missed his real message down south.
However, what worries me is all this new talk about the necessity to avoid “fitna”, from many a leading figure. Much praise for the Maronite bishop’s initiative. Much hints at behind the scenes manoeuvres for a deal
The political theatre may hint at more “internal” calm, much of it reflected in the “normal” return of students to classes. But there were some worrying developments on the ground, as
Playing the “Resistance” Card
All in all, that may be their only logical option; they’re stuck in downtown, they were defeated in Tarik Jdideh and Kesrouan. They cannot afford to back down, so they would go around the UNIFIL, provoke
Enter the usual suspects; the Syrians may be further encouraged by “useful idiots” in the West, and are likely to push Hezb further; Assad may indulge in delusion and self-flattery, and will not give up so easily on his “normal dog-and-pony show”.
He has additional incentive now that the United Nations has signed the agreement on Tuesday, February 5th, to set up the Tribunal. This is only a first step, however, and still requires ratification from the Parliament; Assad can thank March 14th stupidity for keeping his Lebanese peon, Berri, in control of the Parliament. No wonder disaffection is spreading.
It is in this context that Hezb can play the “Resistance” card again. And this time, it may not be so isolated; thanks to this new fangled alliance of theirs, a new war would not be Hezb’s unilateral move. It can now be presented as the action of
So Assad’s message was in two parts; the “talk to me”, on ABC, and the “or else” part, in
It would be a mistake to take the talk seriously; the actions on the ground speak louder, and "truer".
The game is still on...
It highlights quite accurately the predicament of Lebanon; we're not merely at the "mercy of Israel", as much as caught between the "‘realists’ in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel, as well as those retards who protest that they're all Hezbollah now”.
Beati pauperes spiritu
As time goes on, our predicament worsens. Now there are reports of increased guns sales in Lebanon, but the accuracy of those reports is more than questionable. It seems Naharnet picked up the story then it was picked by the Guardian, and then back to Naharnet... Still, How the heck do they know that gun sales increased 3 fold? Do they have prior data to compare to?
Maybe the VAT office has been tracking this. Or maybe Syria provided them with an audit of borer traffic...
In addition, Clancy Chassay's Guardian piece makes the absurd calim that Hariri is buildign a Sunni militia. He does not need to; he has 15,000 to 20,000 fully trained troops, "private contractors" to the interior ministry. The fact that he has a "Sunni source" does not make any more valid.
That is not to say that tensions are not rising, and people are not rearming. However, keep in mind that a civil war starts not with mom and pop's money, but with PUBLIC funds; this means that when "they" want us to kill one another the guns will be provided for FREE. We may be desperate enough to fight, but we're broke...
For now, track gun prices; start worrying when an AK reaches less than USD 200, M16's about USD 300, and bullets around 10c-20c. And forget about handguns. Then, you can start either buying or running.
Till then, watch this wound fester on...
What with the clashes on the border the Lebanese and Israeli armies? The stories and reports do not all make sense to me.
Did the Israelis cross the border and the Lebanese shot at them? Did the Lebanse cross the border and shot at the Israelis? Did the Lebanese shoot at them even before they crossed the border? Was it all a mix up, because UNIFIL had not completed its demarcation? Did the Lebanese fire in the air, and the Israelis retaliated?
Was there a wedding going on, with someone firing in the air? ... OK, now I am pushing it.
I am not the only one skeptical about all the news; Abu Kais has noted that “the reports [he] read in the Lebanese media were confusing”.
This latest spat comes on the heels of the previous discoveries of road side bombs, and of the UN ratification of the tribunal. The Lebanese government then follow suit and ratified its approval, to the dismay of Hezb. We not have to wait for Le Duc de Berry to convene His parliament (do not hold your breath); there may be a way to convene the parliament without Berri doing so… There is a deputy speaker, after all, and he has not been assassinated… yet. And since they cannot raise tensions elsewhere, trouble along the border is a better solution…
To extrapolate from Abu Kais’ post, he notes a report from Al-Akhbar, which states that Hezb, “which did not intervene in the clash awaiting a decision by the Lebanese army, raised the level of alertness among its ranks in the entire border area”.
Weren’t they supposed to “leave” the area?
Herein lies the rub; initially, there was much optimism with the Army’s deployment in the South. Not that I put too much stock in Israeli sources when it comes to understanding Lebanon (nor in their impeccable sense of timing), but their questions are relevant, and their concerns are valid; has our army been so thoroughly compromised by