It is Europe’s and the
All deals with
To the Syrians, the deal on offer far exceeds their bottom line (H/T K, via Abu Kais). My previous rambling discussion on “Syrian Succession” was intended to describe the background, which can better help us understand the Syrian Bottom line;
1- There is no “second rank” that can be sacrificed. Bashar Assad depends far too much on Asif Shawkat, and his brother Maher Assad. They also need people like Rustum Ghazaleh to stay in power and ward off challenges from the likes of Ghazi Kanaan.
Bashar cannot give up the pillars of his regime.
Any other discussion ignores the sectarian nature of the regimes in the region. Any progress will extend them beyond their limits. Any “deal” will no work, unless the EU, US, Saudis are willing to save face and decide that either Hariri committed suicide, or he was assassinated by “opponents to the Syrian regime”...
... Better yet, even by his own family.
Based on the previous dismal record of the West in the region, the Syrians would not be faulted for expecting them to do just that. With this in mind, the past talk about the “non-denominational resistance” is being concretised; thanks to Aoun’s stupidity (or is it?), Hezb can now claim it has a truly “national resistance”…
Still, the Syrians wait.