For all their bluster and Nasrallah’s menacing declarations, Hezb and his Iranians masters have far fewer teeth than other meddlers; their roar hides their confusion, and the fact that all they bare is all they have.
We are now paying a heavy economic price, but we have to recall that those who rented us to the Syrians for more than 15 years will not mind using us to bleed the Iranians over the next two years. For all practical purposes, we are back with a 1990’s style dual-government, and we all know how badly it ended for that other government, and for
In addition to overreach on foreign shores, the Iranians have to contend with problems of their own; internal power struggle among the Pasdaran/Bassij, the reigning Mullahs, and an increasingly disconnected Middle Class. The extent of this power struggle was demonstrated by the sudden climb down in the saga of the British Marines…
In addition, the UN sanctions are already hurting the regime’s pocket. The current oligarchy cannot keep spending money on foreign shores while its own country’s infrastructure falls in disrepair. Its opponents are far better endowed, and far more determined than we give them credit for… They can last the distance.
As they pile-up the miscalculations, many fear
Logically, however, Hezb remains ill-equipped to contain the furies that this would unleash. Logically, the Iranians would not be interested in “spending” this precious card; they have invested too much in Hezb to sacrifice it on
The net result is that stalemate is their only logical option in the medium term; they will not like a “Chapter 7” tribunal, but they will all find a way to muddle through. On the long run, the Mullahs will have to find a way to contend themselves with what they have, which is already purty darn good.