To most Lebanese, what was started in 1973 must end in 2007…
But they cannot use that line of defence publicly, so they higlight the few unasnwered questions about this "Law and Order" episode, and they attack Hariri’s failures in a "Media Insurgency", of which there were a few...
Indeed, the Hairiris do have an unfortunate proclivity to throw money at problems, hoping to drive them away. Yes, they did throw much cash at those people, at least twice.
First, they were trying to get out of an electoral hole they manoeuvred themselves into. When Hariri and Joumblat made a deal with Hezb and Amal, they were thinking they could easily win the elections in the rest of the country. They disregarded the complex electoral dynamics of
As a response to this perceived betrayal, the Christians did not participate in the
In response to that response, the Hariri camp started throwing money in
A second mistake was committed in response to a crisis that erupted in the Ain el Helweh camp, in the southern Lebanese city of
So, Yes, Hariri is partly responsible for this mess. But so is Nasrallah, Berri, and the usual cast of suspects; many of those actors still control far too much of the “services” who did not coordinate properly with the Army...
Indeed, the real reason for all the commotion is not Hariri’s unpaid bills; it is the fact that Hezb cannot accept the Army’s disarmament of the Palestinians. They could be next; echoes of 1559?
At the very least, Nasrallah is raising the price when he considers that the Nahr el-Bared camp a “red line”, that he will not allow the army to cross. He completely disregards the fact that those fanatics started this when they butchered the Lebanese Army’s soldiers.
At worst, Nasrallah confirms
It is not the first time Palestinians are being used as leverage in
As a Lebanese politician, Nasrallah miscalculates (again).
He risks being out of step with today’s Lebanon. His supporters are sold on the idea of an American-Iranian deal, and the future may yet prove them right. But in the meantime,
On one hand, the Palestinian lever cannot be pushed so easily, pace Nasrallah’s spin-doctoring… Sultan Abou Al-Aynan, Fatah’s man in Lebanon, made that clear when he called Al-Manar to set the record straight.
On another hand, the Sunnis are hell-bent on ending this; Fatfat chimed in, accusing him of providing such tacit support for Fath Al-Islam is not the way to play politics. The threats by the Sham Al-Qaeda will only strengthen Sunni resolve; “division” is not an easy card to play those days...
Finally, his own “Christian cover” is blown. Much like so many others, Aoun’s FPM pledged “full support to the Army” and clearly refused to consider that there were any “red line to the Lebanese Army”… While they played lip service to Nasrallah’s “religious considerations” and continue to pander Hersh’s overused piece, their site is nothing short of a fan site for the Army, and good source of the latest photos. incidentally, Aoun is back in Paris, temporarily, just for a book signing and a couple of meetings...
The Interest Accrued
The balance of accounts in simple; This generation will have to pay the dues owed by the procrastinators that preceded them, with interest.
The Palestinian proposal that calls, among other things, "a mechanism for the departure of Fatah al-Islam from the camp" is unsustainable, and only a return to the past. Putting lipstick on a pig will not solve this problem; anything short of punishment for those guys, in a way that will look acceptable, will only worsen the long-term problem. There is no way the Army can survive if it allows Fath Al-Islam to "save face" in this.
For this reason, we need to brace ourselves for the coming few weeks, as the tribunal is voted in, and as Fath-Al-Asswipes (catchy name...) gets support from other quarters; Naameh is still brewing, after all. This is why the short-term is crucial, If the army is not able to assert itself quickly, and if 1973 does not end soon, we better all brace ourselves for a repeat of 1975 as other groups join the mess.
No starting player survived the last "game"…
Syrians and Iranians: Diverging Tracks? (
An interesting piece of news; on one hand, the Syrian-Israeli “peace track” appears to be moving again, on the other, Iran's Larijani has been offering to include Hezb’s forces into the army.
Are the two allies working on different agendas, or is this a time-gaining manoeuvre?