On one “side”, Der General is perplexed by the Bteghrinator’s reluctance to start an electoral fight in the Metn. Indeed, the Organic Orange’s own Kelem Becile failed to convince their otherwise faithful ally to pick up a fight with the resurgent Falangos whose boss has hopes of re-rising to the Presidency. Yes, in
On the same “side”, Der General’s lack of success comes on the heels of a tactical defeat during the civil war “prova” of January 23rd, when the “Grand Shtroumpf” and his Barbudos were left to carry the weight of the entire uprising. Luckily, they had stocked enough tires to choke the entire city back then.
But now, events are changing many things. The attacks against the army showed the depth of support among the nation for normalcy, to say the least. The orange support for the army is far from being the weakest, as many new posters labelled “Ansar” now attest.
As a result, the Barbudos want guarantees that their Christian ally face will stick around as they raise the stakes even more, pushing for a second government. At this stage, they are “blood-testing” all their allies, as even the Istiz is proving harder to prod than usual, because of his concern over that last shred of معاويا’s hair.
Foggy Blue Horizon
It is true that time is running out for the Rainbow Coalition of March 8th; Rictus Oblicus has already forced their hand by calling for by-elections in Metn and
But Rictus Oblicus must look to his own back; many of his supporters appear uneasy about his foreign support, as it limits their own freedom of action… and compromise. It is true that Barbichu is struggling to succeed his father, and has so far proven to be too fast on the compromise, which unsettles even his closest supporters. It is in this context that Moukhtarionator’s and Hakaym’s frequent rants should be viewed, as they stiffen the resolve of their own “side”. And the latest events only pushed the base into a most uncompromising position; too much blood has been spilled for anyone to accept any compromise with terrorists who, incidentally, must now wish they were peaceful vegetarians… Too bad their brand of suicide requires “company”…
It is this context that we should read actions like the Bteghrillon’s premature announcement of victory; it may have opened the road to a compromise back then.
This will put more wind in Rictus Oblicus’ sails. Flush with foreign support, he has now expertly manoeuvred Big Sister, the main sponsor behind the March 8th Jamboree, into a confrontation with the dis-United Nations and the “Free World”… Free, as in for sale on the cheap, but luckily for us, the Damascus Cub has been unmaking friends. Maybe he cannot afford any deal; he owes too much to family, friends, and even the increasingly influential Turbanistas.
Any “openings”, “appeasement”, or “wooing” towards his den were soon answered by a diversification of terror, as promised earlier; the assassination of MP Eido, as well as by the attack against UNFIL…
Onward on to War?
In the face of this onslaught of terror from Big Sister, one would be perplexed by the strength of the support behind March 8th and the rabidity of their propaganda, especially among the many whose dress code is anathema to the Barbudos. But all the calls for “reform” emanating from those who claim March 14th only renews fears of a resurgent Hariristan, when Lebanon was little more than a “Banana Republic”, with a political class in hock with a few unsavoury characters.
This is no idle fear; in the hands of those who gave us the “quadripartite alliance”, “Paris III” money can potentially add more debt to a bankrupt system. The
In this confused context, two things are obvious;
1- The entire political establishment in
2- The region is reaching the limits of the old clan-based systems under which
At some point, the Gordian knot should break. The Lebanese habit of “no winners / no losers” compromises cannot be sustained for long. Even if they manage to sidestep the by-election, they have the presidential elections to worry about. September 25th is fast approaching, and the mandate of Emile 1st Thallassophilos would soon be over. There is also that little matter of a little tribunal; Inspector not-so-Clouseau having concluded his inquiry, he only needs to publish his findings, which will reveal much. There is also that little “Al Madina” dossier Mr. Rozek has been pushing, with enough mud to attach to the most Teflon of Arab politicians.
Then again, that Gordian knot has proven very resilient, and not Alexander is in view…
Friends and Foes…
Lord, Guard me from my friends.
My enemies, I can deal with