In the modern
Before Nahr El-Bared and After Nahr El-Bared
The events will be far reaching unintended consequences on
When similar attacks were made against the Lebanese Army in the 1970’s, the Lebanese society’s divisions were deepened, and few supported the troops. Today, even Hezb has had to make grudging support.
We used to say that only the Christians could have gotten the French out, and only the Sunnis could have kicked
An optimist would note that, in spite of the “Red Line” mistake, Nasrallah’s speech give little for the Salafis to hold on to. Had Hezb supported the Army too early, the Salafis would have had something to “hold on to”, propaganda wise.
A pessimist would point out the general “ugly” atmosphere, the political blackmail of “either a government or more terror”. When politicians refuse to live up to their responsibilities, and only pay lip service to decency, how do you expect the crowds to tone down their chants at the funeral, and stop making increasingly derogatory remarks about the “other side”?
Before you make up your minds; note that the pessimists usually survives…
And more importantly, the Lebanese government, for all its faults, continued to engage the Palestinians, coordinating with Fatah, explaining his position, and holding out the hope of better treatment in the future. Time will tell whether our rulers are sincere, or whether they have an idea of how to improve the sorry lot of the refugees.
Time will also tell whether Israeli pols can still learn…
Before Nahr El-Bared, the Syrian regime framed politics as a choice between dictatorship OR terror. As long as people ceded to this blackmail,
After Nahr El-Bared, the masks have all but fallen. Blowing up cats and dogs is one thing, booby-trapping babies is another.
I have heard the story of the booby trapped Palestinian baby from many different sources; the child was crying, paralyzed by fear and unable to tell the Lebanese “Meghwar” who rescued him that he was “mined”; his explosion was triggered by remote control before anyone realized what hit them.
Whether the story is true is not relevant at this stage. I am using it to illustrate that, in this fog of war, perception becomes reality. Whether this is propaganda is not as salient as the diversity of sources that are passing; it around reveals how much the Syrian regime lost in
The Syrian regime may have hoped to trigger a mass uprising in
Nahr El-Bared has demonstrated how far is the Syrian regime willing to go to maintain the local kleptocracy. Whatever meager Arab support it got may not appreciate
And that’s no choice at all.