Monday, June 25, 2007

Italian Designs

When you’re planning to get in a fight, it is crucial to be able to get out as easily as you get in. During World War II, the Italians had deployed Autoblinda AB 40, with a driving position at each end;
In and Out of trouble in a jiffy…

Maybe that’s the rationale behind the Italian minister’s reported overture to Syria. Are they coming up with a political “version” of this design for their participation in the Lebanese Campaign? Whatever the case maybe, their diplomatic manoeuvres will be perceived as appeasement, with at least three types of repercussions:

1- Appeasement only emboldens terrorists:

…As well as their puppet masters.

The way the Italians dealt with their own hostage crises is very informative; their habit of paying money to free their hostages only “drove up” the prices, and increased “demand” for other kidnappings.

In a similar vein, the Syrians were emboldened and drove up the price when the latest Arab compromise was offered. To be sure, the Assad clan can not “hold” to a deal, not when it comes to Lebanon. But this time, because of the way they broke the deal, they may “overreached”, as the extent of their duplicity is revealed to the wider world

Time will tell.

2- Appeasement causes collateral damage.

This is the most egregious consequence of appeasement, and is little reported in the Western media; all those who were associated with the great white reporters were all massacred, because no one bothered to pay for such small fry.

In this context, the Lebanese are already paying a higher price for moves towards appeasement, and we will see more assassinations, and more local politicians hedging their bets.

Incidentally, what’s wrong with using local reporters cover local news? Rather than cutting yourself off from the rest of the world, use a little outsourcing. And recall that locals are less likely to have the wool pulled over their eyes

3- Appeasement Antagonizes Allies.

Appeasement shifts terror for a while, but it does not abate.

At the very least appeasements and ransom payments show that the Italians are woefully unconcerned about the effect of their little manoeuvres on others. Their attempts to “cut deals” to protect their troops will increase “pressure” on other troops, and The Spanish contingent may have Mr. D’Alema to thank for the latest attack, where Spaniard blood paid for his attempt at engagement.

At least, there are no Italian “nationals” among the terrorists… Yet.

With this in mind, it would not be surprising if the Americans did intentionally shoot that Italian agent on his way back from buying the freedom of a Mrs. Sgrena. That he died a Hero’s death does not hide the fact that such “activities” only endanger others. The shooters could just as well have been the families of the mant Iraqi or afghani minders who were sacrificed by the appeasers.

Check 1, Check 2… Check 3?

The first two “check”, but I am still no sure about the third one, at least not untly Spanish soldiers shoot a couple of Italian journalists by mistake.

One thing is certain, however; Signore Minimo d’Allema looks like a fool, having joined the ranks of many distinguished others who though “engaging” Syria did not have a price tag attached to it. Let us hope he learned that this fight is as much about “face” as it is about “freedom”.

It is too late to get the hell outta Dodge, and for all those who still harbour any illusions, keep in mind the following;

1- This is a fight to the end.

Here's a mathematical proof:

Lebanon = Syrian regime’s survival They will fight hard


For all the horrors of Nahr El-Bared where their minions took civilians hostage, rigged babies for explosion… the Assad clan is still playing nice. With all the Arab pressure bearing on them, they still feel a need for “plausible deniability”. They have yet to play their master cards, as explicitly stated recently

2- There is no “out”.

To those who want an easy out, remember the words of one Laden, Ossama B., in an ABC News interview, on May 28th, 1998;

We have seen in the last decade the decline of the American government and the weakness of the American soldier who is ready to wage Cold Wars and unprepared to fight long wars. This was proven in Beirut when the Marines fled after two explosions.

3- There is no “away”.

Since this is a larger fight, Rome will feel the crap its politicians are striving to sidestep in Beirut. They could have avoided this by staying out in the first place, and by just sending ammo to the Lebanese Army.

They’re fast learners, and they’ve got the cojones to take care of business…

But please, send us some of those nice German (forward-driving) tanks.

We can't wait to get them...

We can’t afford anymore retreats


ghassan karam said...

When I look at the Lebanese morass, which I do quite often, I usually come to the conclusion that HA et al cannot prevail in this struggle not only because they are on the wrong side of history but also because the current geopolitical alignments in the region and even globally will not tolerate such an outcome. This I still adamantly believe in. Yet the short run does not look to be very promising. September the 25th is less than three months away and Nov 14 is less than five months away without any hint whatsoever about a possible resolution to this standoff between the March 14 group and the opposition.

I have very often spoken about the dangers of appeasement and that we should never allow ourselves to commit appeasement under the guise of compromise. But again look at where we are: Lahoud will never pass the torch to a Saniora led government. This means that unless a President is agreed upon, which is very highly unlikely, then the likely hood of a two government solution is becoming a greater possibility. What will be the implications of two governments on the ISF and the LAF? Would they keep their allegiances to the current government who is likely to maintain support of the Arab League and the international community or would they splinter into two camps. If the ISF and LAF avoid the temptation to split then the possibility of violence diminishes substantially. For the life of me I cannot think of a face saving solution that will keep March 14 in the drivers seat, so to speak, allow HA/Beri/Aoun to climb down and thus restore a semblence of normality and order to the state by electing a President on time. Maybe the only way out is to sugar coat an appeasement by one side as nothing else but a shrewed compromise for the sake of the national well being. Maybe there is no choice but to agree to elect a capable President but one who is not aligned to either camp. Isn't the real test eventually the level of commitment to sovereignty, democracy and soci-economic and political well being? Isn't such a person more likely to be found among those who do not belong to any of the groupings in such a bankrupt political class anyway. No to appeasement but yes to a qualified but unalligned President. This insect infested swamp that passes for politics must be drained for the sake of all of us.

Jeha said...

I have deleted the last "Sam" thread, and will not allow that person back till he formally apologizes for all the insults and threats he has proffered. Period.

Please excuse me for re-enabling comment moderation for now, but it is easier for me to do so at this stage. I expect disagreements, but I cannot tolerate insults; there is already enough of that on Lebanese TV and in the papers. So all comments will still go through with some delay, except that individual's comments, until he has made the necessary apologies.

Thank you all for understanding.