To be sure,
But our current team of post-nationalists did little to oppose this “Lebanese-Syrian War”, and in many ways, they may have helped unwittingly worsen our predicament by making more compromises than the country could afford.
How United Are We?
I mean Really United. The kind that gets translated in deeds, not words.
On the “optimist’s side”, there is a large consensus in
We used to say that only the Christians could have kicked the French out, and only the Sunnis could have kicked
But the pessimists would be forgiven in they noted the cracks in this façade. The consensus may not be large enough, and two major cracks appear here, in addition to an existing one.
First, there remains one unsettling fact. Not to wish a bad thing to anyone, but since the Walkyries are blind “samplers”, why is the proportion of Shiite soldiers among the Army’s fallen martyrs far lower than their actual share of the armed forces? Actually, as of the time of writing, it was closer to 0%. This remains a question worth asking…
Second, why is Saad so hell-bent on placating Hezb and the Palestinians militias? Not that I am looking forward for war 2.0, but the compromises I fear will only hasten it. To all those who appear to look for peaceful solutions, he should remember what happened to the last member of an illustrious family; when gentlemen play with hoodlums, the game is Rugby, not Football.
Third, an older crack remains. Recall the army’s less than stellar behaviour in January. Today, the army is being remade “on the run”, thanks to the actions of a new chief of staff, but it comes at great expense of treasure, materiel, and most importantly; men.
Recall the Roman adage; “Si vis pacem, Para Bellum”; if you do not want to get in a fight, you better not act scared. The road from l'umiliazione di Canossa to
We all want peace, and we all understand the wheeling/dealing required for compromise. But allowing the Fatah-du-jour & Co. to keep their weapons would be a compromission that few can tolerate.
Saad Hariri’s excessive focus on the tribunal and any pursuit of compromise risks not only alienating Christians and Druze, but also his own Sunni base. From a purely sectarian perspective, he now risks facing a Christian-Druze alliance with the Sunnis looking away in disgust. So far, he can still recover from his many mistakes, thanks to Siniora statesmanship.
But if he keeps on this road, a far worse “Bellum” could be thrust upon us all.
How Much More Can we Take? (Updated
The concern now is about reactions; all March 14th MP’s have been very vocal, stating that “they will not take this anymore”. Whether they act on this, and what it means, is less clear. But two salient things are clear;
1- They do not control their “street” anymore. When the Nahr-El-Bared events had started, the killing of the Islamist Abou Jandal in
2- The media coverage did fan the flames of sectarian hatred. It did so in very subtle ways; while all Arab channels, even NTV, covered the assassination and paid homage to MP Eido, I noticed a couple of “oddballs” in my channel surfing. Al Jazeera only noted that “10 people were killed in
Time, and mostly the next few days, will prove whether I am right to be concerned about Sunni-Shiite violence. Time will also show where this will go. But if it escalates, we can only have ourselves to blame, regardless of the extent of Syrian involvement.
A Note About Comments: A few commenters and I do not always see eye to eye. But we stick to a few well unspoken rules, some of which I have clarified earlier. I have had differences with other bloggers, but it never came to this because we all stick to simple democratic rules as I understand them, based on my understanding of the Golden Rule;
- [Almost] no “paste jobs”
- No insults,
- No sophistry.
Anything less will turn this forum into a mediocratic swamp (Not that I do not dip in it from time to time). Whenever I had been seen to stray away from those rules, I had been berated (GK can be harsh).
I feel it is better to hit hard early, rather than being forced to take harsher actions later. In this regard, I have deleted quite a few comments from those that have been insulting to one “side” or the “other”. One persistent individual had been particularly insulting of late, and increasing the stakes to racism. You may have noticed that since his last insults (which are no longer around… for now). I have banned him and deleted his comments, and will delete any comments that he makes from now on.
This is the best way for me to leave this forum as open as possible, as I feel I do learn a lot from it. But please, do not let yourselves be dragged along this path; Bait is only phonetically part of “Debate”, lest the discussion be taken over by the Nasser Quandils of the blogosphere and their verbal diarrhoea.
So, please ignore the stench; at least till I take out the trash.