Friday, January 11, 2008

Mighty Moussa

For all the professed optimism, the Arab League mission to save Lebanese sovereignty may well fall apart. That is, unless Lebanese sovereignty does not fall apart as a result of Mighty Moussa’s (renewed) search for “consensus”.

The Standoff

The “Lebanese” standoff is a complex crisis, having at least as much to do with the intransigence of the Syrian-Iranian axis regime, and the duplicity of the Israeli ruling class as with the incompetence of Lebanese politicians.

In the face of Arab and international efforts, the Syrians have already responded, and the Iranians have grumbled a little. To both of them, the only acceptable solution is a return of Syria to Lebanon, nothing less.

The Way Out

And pace the well-meaning idiots, Syria cannot be prized away from Iran. Sure there are disagreements; Syria needs Lebanon for the benefits of the lucrative rackets, Iran needs it to serve as a “second front” in the event of war in the Persian Gulf. But, in the present context, that is hardly an opening; more unites the two countries than divides them…

Still, Mighty Moussa’s mission is not completely useless.

Even if the Arab mediation is successful, Suleiman’s election will do little to change things. For all his professed good intentions, the General may well be as flawed as that other Michel… Unless you still think that the destruction of a camp and subsequent capture of various small fry is victory enough, Shaker El-Absi having escaped. Or worse, the General may find himself hindered by forces beyond his control. Still, if for some reason Moussa is successful, that may buy us some much needed respite. Even a flawed president may be better than the vacuum; time is not on our side, and the next US President will have other priorities

And if Mighty Moussa is unsuccessful? Well, we can fear the worse on the long term as many outstanding issues remain. But we have a pause of sorts at least till the conclusion of this US election. And the upcoming Arab Summit will be "interesting" to watch

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3 comments:

ghassan karam said...

Jeha,
Oh, I wish I did not have to say this, but I have no choice but to describe what I see from where I am standing.
(1)The Lebanese sovereignty cannot be lost since it has never existed. You cannot lose what you don't have.Those that have deluded themselves, such as myself, that Lebanese sovereignty is an achievable goal will have to go on hoping against hope that their dreams will somehow become reality. But to be real that will happen only if you believe in miracles.
(2) No one is to blame for the Lebanese quagmire except the "incompetent Lebanese politicians" but above all the Lebanese people who have chosen ,willingly, to shape their destiny by being either voyeurs or agents of foerign interests. Ultimately we did shape our future by opting to play the role that has brought us to this stage. No one else is to blame but us.

Jeha said...

GK,

I agree...

Indeed, this veritas lux mea, and its light highlights a few ugly facts on our beloved country. I guess people talk the loudest about what they do not have; uniquely among other republics, our constitution's strangely starts describing the nation's tarritory before discussing the governing vision that makes a state. When a founding document starts with a real estate claim before even setting up a vision for the nation, you know something is not quite right. So far, we have been defining our country by geography, rather than ideal. So, until we define what it is to be Lebanese by putting forward our ideals, I am afraid we will never be a country.

I am still hopeful, however. Rome was not built in a day... Then again, it had solid foundations.

Anonymous said...

Ultimately lebanese people have to be blamed for the present situation, but money coming from abroad can also make a difference in the present situation.
I've just read an interesting tidbit that the annual budget to Hezbullah from Tehran has been increased from 400 mln USD to 1 bln USD. I am not sure of the veracity of that news (http://counterterrorismblog.org), nevertheless I thought you might like to know of it.