It is now clear that neither “side” has what it takes to follow through their rhetoric. Case in point;
1- Two years ago, after it shied away from storming the Serail, the Hezb-axis let its demonstration fizzle in the tent-swamp. It was clear, even before “day one”, that Hezb could not have followed through anyway. So why start at all?
2- This Valentine, having succeeded in making yet another show of force, those who claim March 14th did not rise to its true spirit, and failed to push through a presidential election. It was clear that they could have easily pushed through, and forced their backers to accept the fait accompli. So why not follow through?
The logic of confrontation does not allow for much Goldilocks logic, and the chest pounding can only go so far; you either fight to win or you don’t fight at all.
So, if either of the two sides acts like their main aim is the other’s defeat; Why don’t they follow through on their rethoric?
And if they really can’t follow through; why don’t they compromise?
Led by Marionettes
Whatever their individual merits, those who “lead” either side are acting like marionettes, reacting to outside events with little initiative of their own. But as we are not the only ones being misled; our puppeteers are much diminished, and they may also have strings of their own, as shown by last weeks’ assassination of Mughnieh.
The whodunit part is unclear, and some even draw interesting parallels with Abou Nidal’s demise in
Aside from the debate, the raw facts still reveal a lot. Regardless if the “
1- “They” could have killed him in
The First implication is internal; they chose one of the most secure sites in the country, and close to a few other “key” locations. Such impunity may indicate that the infiltration of the Syrian regime extends beyond Khaddam and Kanaan; in his self-gratifying housekeeping, Bashar missed a few spots.
2- The Second implication is external.
4- Hezb has now confirmed that Mughnieh had been its true leader all along, and thus undoing all their past “branding” work… And even worse. This will prove to be a dreadful mistake; aside from a few peccadilloes in Lebanon, the world’s officialdom has implicated Mughnieh in attacks against the United States, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, global warming… OK, that last one may not stick... But the fact remains that, whether it is all true or not is beside the point; at this stage, he is now guilty until proven innocent. And since “jesmo labbiss”, and he is not around to clarify matters and clear his name, military-security bureaucracies will grind away unhindered.
Consider this apparently innocuous snippet, which may soon be recurring with alarming frequency;
This week, the FBI sent a notice to 18,000 police agencies warning them to remain vigilant about [Hezb]. ABC News has learned that [Hezb] has maintained a sizeable presence in the
To those neo-sectarians amongst us, know this; All Lebanese look alike. Whether we are Druze, Maronite, Orthodox, Sunni, Shiite, Scientologist, Devil worshippers… We will be branded a potential terrorist. And a foreign connection is no protection, especially if you are born in
Now that Nasrallah has declared war to the world, we Lebanese will ultimately pay the price of his embrace of Mughnieh, much like the Palestinians paid the price of Arafat’s embrace of Saddam. I am not sure if Palestine will ever be "liberated", but if you though the July war was bad, we’re in for an upgrade, and maybe even a helluva ride down memory lane.
We'll all be standing in the same line-up…