Friday, March 28, 2008

Syria's Dutch Cards?

Joy to the World, the Court is come

Let us receive her Justice;

Let every heart prepare Her room,

And Heaven and nature sing,

And Heaven and …

…Not so fast, Dude...

A court is no policy panacea, and this one no more than others, in spite of its oddities. Those who still believe in such things as magic bullets or Santa Claus better spontaneously combust those ideas; the initiation of the court is the beginning of a long process.

A very long process; in this high stakes poker, Bashar still has quite a few cards to play in spite of his own growing weakness, and quite a lot of reserves of “plausible deniability” left for him to draw upon.

Using his terror cards may not be optimal at this stage. His second cards; Aoun and Nasrallah, are “boxed in” at this stage, and any additional moves can prove ever more counterproductive.

The two "great" leaders have few options left, with Geagea and Joumblat "sniping" at them from the sidelines, they have to contend with growing dissent in the ranks. But before he moves on the master cards closer to his chest (and neck), Bashar can now wield a few powerful cards…

Enter the Dutch Ace…

The Hariri tribunal will apparently be located in The Hague, the Dutch hub of the international-justice industry. But Holland is also home to a politician who plans on diversifying into “movies”.

So, rather than ignoring this little Van Pen, why not make some hay out of it? Arabs love those conspirational linkages, and a little protesting can go a long way; it worked "well" during the Danish cartoons fiasco, when the right wing of the Hariri mouvance came to town… I'll bet the bank against all those criminally biased "engagionistas" that the Syrians are still playing for keeps; with this in mind, they would love nothing more than to outflank Hariri and his Saudis friends in such a field, just as soon as the summit is (officially) over.

Maybe this is why Abu Samra has been simmering more than usual. And maybe this is why the Dutch Embassy is being discrete.

But this time, no matter the number of useful idiots they can git may be harder for the outraged crowds to find their way there this time. And even if "someone" helped (again), the road may not be as safe for them, with fewer unarmed people for them to beat up; Geagea has gained some more “leverage” of his own. His opponents have a point; the Hakim's past flirtations are not reassuring, and neither are those of his current allies. But this does not mean that the "brown shirt" label may not get as much mileage this time around.

Joy to the World…

video

1 comment:

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