Saturday, May 10, 2008

Beyond Barney & Friends

After the excitement and hectic pace of the past few days, it is now the time of rumours and innuendos. In the midst of all this, the second civil war slowly gathers pace.

Back to Square One

All the achievements of the past few years have been undone, and the mistakes made are magnified. The reconstruction of Beirut was limited to downtown, thanks in large part to Hezb and the Syrians; yes, the late Prime Minister Hariri was no saint, but he was far from being the devil. Those idiots who rant about Hariristan forget that he never was much of a warmonger.

And neither are his successors, apparently. This may not count to much in this macho Middle Beast, but it should. There is more to life than death in the name of Allah/God/Jehovah/Jim.

In short; the post-war Lebanese "miracle" is all but undone.

With close to 80 Billion dollars in debt (yes, I know, officially it’s still 40), welcome to the new Lebanon; a poor, divided country, emptied of its best and brightest. Beyond Barney & Friends, this new country now faces two new dangers.

1-It’s (sitll) the Economy, Stup... er . Barney

And this country is now gearing up for more war. It is not back to square one; we’re moving beyond that. Those idiots fighting over scraps of what remains of the Hariri legacy have not reached the end of the month yet; the irony is that most of the militias are actually government employees recycled into the ISF.

The foreign backers of the government they’re undermining is the only thing keeping the Lira afloat. If Siniora goes, they’ll be some hard end of month issues. No wonder that, while Barney & Friends was taking Beirut, others were buying Dollars.

2-The New Lebanon

In the past war, our best and brightest were fighting one another, displaying courage, ingenuity, and barbarism. I was always fascinated how we Lebanese are truly at our best when we are at our worst.

But in this Lebanon today, the best have gone. And the pace has accelerated; wave after wave, close to a million of us have left, out of an estimated population of 4 Million. There are towns where 90% of eligible voters are outside the country, though the average appears closer to 40%.

And the ones left behind are not staying there because they won’t. Simply, in this global economy where skills matter supremely, they are unemployable; they can’t leave.

But they can fight.

Not well, but there's a lot of them. And without a "Future TV" to "guide" them, they're now on their own. And they prefer defenseless targets, if memory serves. No superheroes there.

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1 + 2 = Boiling Over

And they are boiling with rage. Hezb’s backers are already concerned about this, as evidenced by their talk about “Al Qaeda”. Pace Seymore Hersh, Hariri’s backers are no Al0Qaeda, but a quite few of them talk about “Sheikh Ossama” and the “Martyr Saddam”. Now with “their side” humiliated and muzzled, they’re going to take action on their own.

The most publicized actions will take place in Beirut and the Chouf. Expect a civilized protest in Beirut, to contrast with the thuggery of Barney and Friends. Expect more escalation in the Chouf, maybe an outright battle. Today's calm is misleading, and the army's passivity will come at a cost. In addition, when Iran looses 3 Pasdarans close to "hill 888", you know something is cooking. There may be something true about the 300 Iranians landing in Beyrouth airport, after all.

In Lebanon, the news media over-reports Beirut, and under-reports the rest of the country.

Look around Beirut.

Look Beyond Beirut.

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2 comments:

Red Cell News Team said...

The coming days are going to bring a political solution that in effect becomes a non-coup by the LAF and Hizballah.

So much for the supposed lone institution of the state the enjoys cross-confessional support.

I only hope now that the international community does not let Lebanon sink back into the morass that was pre-Cedar Revolution days.

Red Cell

Anonymous said...

Hazbani thinking.
1) Some people, the "Haaretz" eds. for example, went to sleep in a post modern new Middle East dream and woke up in a pre-Neanderthal situation. It happens to them again & again & again and all the time and every time when they wake up they are trying to behave as if it ain`t so. So here went this myth about people being inteligent, on the contrary, like Lemings they never learn.
2) In many places, Druze, all over their diaspora, are writing and protesting. In two countries the Druze people are not doing a thing for their brothers in Mount Lebanon: Syria and Israel. This is perhaps because, unlike the rest of the world, India and Island for example, there are no Druze people in these two countries at all. Here goes another myth.