Saturday, May 31, 2008

سليمان الحكيم

From misery can opportunity arise...

Something good may come of this "almost civil war" of ours... Rather than a weak president, Michel Suleiman has the potential to rise to become a powerful statesman. His lack of a strong support base needs not be a hindrance, because of the strongly antagonistic position of the country’s two powerful “March” Movements.

Nasrallah’s Trap

Recent events will likely give Hezb a much needed boost, as the Israelis are set to release Kuntar, that brave child slayer we burned Lebanon over back in 2006. On the short term, As usual, many Lebanese will end up footing the bill for the “the relatively low price Israel is expected to pay for Regev and Goldwasser”.

On the long term, however, the fundamentals will not change. Nasrallah remains in a bind, his “Military Solution” turning fast into a “Military Trap”;

Nasrallah has a problem. Most Lebanese want a real state and most Shiites don't want another war with Israel. Hizbullah, in contrast, doesn't want a real state but needs permanent war to remain relevant. That's Nasrallah's trap.”

But Nasrallah will not see it this way; buoyed by the prisoner exchange, Hezb “will be running on fumes”, and he will keep on digging. However, as he digs himself deeper in this trap, he will risks dragging us down with him.

Hariri’s Waiting Game

Not all of us will go quietly, but few of us can afford to make much of a fuss; when you’re in deep voodoo up to your neck, the last thing to do is to make waves.

So, as Hezb crows, the Hariri camp sulks. But they will not stay idle. In the immediate, they will focus on bread and butter issues. They have little option left but to play the waiting game and hope for the other side to stumble, or for the regional equation to change in their favour. They may have a (slim) chance. For one, Hezb’s high-wire act leaves them little room for manoeuvre. For another, and for all their faults, those who claim March 14th are closer to the real preoccupations of the Lebanese.

If they fail, Nasrallah's victory will be short-lived, and his self-proclaimed "Party of God" will soon be facing another Salafi-inspired party of God with a rival claim to those Fourty Houris [Note: some translate it as "virgins", but another reading could just as well lead to "wild raisins". But nuts would be harder sell... Anyway, I digress. Back to us nuts]... In the immediate, we’re all desperate for one thing; that this coming tourist season be successful; it will not only make up for the lost opportunities of the past two years, but the funds would help keep the other well-funded nasties at bay.

The Lebanese focus now on a promising summer with investment inflows. They focus on the formation of a government that enshrines the desire to build an independent, sovereign state

A Sehabi opening?

This time, however, the key of Lebanon’s success does not lay in the hands of those ineffectual politicians; our new President has a few cards to play. However, manipulating those negatives to assert the state’s authority will require great manoeuvring skills.

To most of us peones, Michel Suleiman remains a great unknown. Were he to try, Michel Suleiman will not be alone is his efforts; by taking the side of reason, he has to chance to become the arbiter that Michel Claoun could never become. So far, there are signs that he is, rather shrewdly, sticking to the letter of the law. Such principled behaviour would earn him much kudos, and could allow him to wipe out Orangebutt from the political scene by providing those Christians opposed to the Hakaym with an acceptable political alternative.

It is High Time…

There is indeed a great potential there. There is a feeling among most people in all confessional groups that we need to move on. It is high time we Lebanese marched past the bickering of the Ba’ath nostalgiacs of March 8th and the whiners who usurp March 14th. It is high time we live up to the dreams of the martyrs. It is high time we did more than pay lip service to the memories of the victims. It is high time a wise person came along to save the Lebanese child from the bickering of rival clans who both usurp its paternity.

…And it is time we do not have;

The Lebanese have to lead—the world will follow. This might be the realistic, perhaps even the noble, way of handling a country. The problem is that the decisions the Lebanese have recently made only increase the likelihood that they will eventually be abandoned by the international community[…] So will Lebanon eventually be abandoned? That's for the Lebanese people to decide

Let’s hope this genera Suleiman is another Shehab, minus the “Second Bureau”.

Let’s hope the first among those Lebanese will decide correctly. Never in our history was there as much riding on the smarts and manoeuvring skills of a single person.

5 comments:

israel said...

sure you might consider us as your enemy or its good place to focus the blame for your troubles...

but once your country was our natural ally in the region...


the problem is you always speak of independence and let other take the wheels...

this how you stuck with the PLO who was thrown from Jordan which eventually led to your civil war.
plus Syria meddling even after retreating leaving all those workers and now Iran with Hezbollah and veto rights in the parlament...


well i guess our mistake was that we tried to root out those extremist who did what they wnat in your backyard...
what could we do you didnt take a stand, but i guess much like the US involvement in Iraq you cant help some one who doesn't want to be helped...


I really hope you will be able to gain your independence some day.

danny said...

The link to bas mat el watan's clip made it worthwhile...As for "Slyman", we'll see the alliance he'll form with Murr and most likely Qurnet shahwan leftovers to squeeze the orange...Government first, ministirial statemant second...etc...etc...The Summer Season...and voila: Election talk; then Ramadan, Xmas and any Eid you want and we arrive to: 2009 elections and the establishment of Hariri tribunal!

...In the meantime; I'm moving to liberate Abu Hassan's land in Detroit!

amir in tel aviv said...

"Nasrallah’s Trap"... agree with you.

Amazingly, according to the Hebrew media, HZB handed the body parts he was so proud of having, to Israel, by surprise. The red-cross was told on Sunday 10:00AM to come and pick it from the Nakura/Rosh-Hanikra crossing point.
Nobody was expecting this.

It was according to those sources, a gift for free.
Is HZB changing?

R said...

wasnt nissr sentence over ? Maybe HZB was trying to sell it as a trade ? Seems amateurish to me, but if true ti would be indication of the bind they are in.

Bad Vilbel said...

It was not a gift.

Israel released that HA spy (Nassim Nisr) after he completed his prison sentence and had him deported to Lebanon.

HA wanted to make it look like they somehow secured the guy's release (as opposed to him simply having completed his term), so they returned the remains, and are now claiming that they somehow liberated Nisr....

Propaganda...