Friday, May 09, 2008

Civil War, Part Deux

Check out Charles (Allah Yehmih) Malek in Hamra, and he has first hand account... But it looks like Joumblat is still holed up in Clemenceau, and so is Saad. I think today will show whether the battle is frozen, or whether Hezb is willing to go to the bitter end.

One though comes to mind, though; from their actions, it appears that Nasrallah& Friends are looking for a surrender, not a victory, as they cannot afford the consequences. This is also apparent from early rumours that Joumblat had left Clemenceau; apparently, the story was meant as a way to pressure him to do the right thing.

If that is verified by the events of today, then Joumblat's staying in Clemenceau fits in this logic; unable to deny them victory, he appears determined to deny them his surrender. Joumblat is well aware that security and safery, in a Lebanon dominated by Hezb, can only be political, not military.

His presence in Clemenceau therefore contributes to freeze Hezb's advance, and to shore up Hariri's in Koraitem. No wonder Hezb just added pressure on Koreitem; they may be hoping to unhinge what they perceive to be the other weakest link in the chain.


Figured I'd map the fight... Any corrections or updates, please let me know, I will update as it goes. Hopefully, this will not last long enough for us to add it to Google Earth.


Phillip said...

Hey, I loved the map, only I was going to ask that you change Jumblatt's party's (the Progressive Socialist Party) acronym to PSP, PPS is the commonly used acronym for the SSNP (Syrian Social Nationalist Party); it would help to avoid any confusion. Also, there are reports that Hizbollah has advanced as far as Rue Hamra and taken over a few buildings. Thanks, keep up the good work and my prayers are with you.

amir in tel aviv said...

Today May 9, 63 years ago, the bad guys surrendered to the good guys in Europe. Hopefully, soon in Lebanon too.
Be safe.!!

helen said...

Bonjour Jeha.
You need to update it but it's easy now. (I woke-up this morning under schock and called my brother to learn that the west was taken overnight). It is obvious that futur don't know how to make war.
what will happen next is a questionmark. Logically, I would say that we might end-up like Gaza, except that Hamas was elected democratically and did not take the country as hostage.

Sietske said...

Borrowed your map, hope you don't mind.S

Anonymous said...

Please be safe. I am not as optimistic as Amir. I realy wish for this madness to end. I realy do.

Bad Vilbel said...

What I find the most interesting on the map (and it's not mentioned much), is that the army seems positioned right along the green line (like in the old days), separating what is now Hezboland from "East Beirut".

Seems like major effort is being made by both HA and the army to keep the Christians out of this. (I have an inkling as to why)

Anonymous said...

Hey Jeha,
Sleep well and don't worry,
we're going to "clean off" all
those harirestan thugs sniping civilians on the street.