Thursday, May 15, 2008

Divine Stupidity

From Divine Victory to Divine Signs of Upcoming Final Victories, Nasrallah’s divine party can add a new divine achievement to his list;

The Divine Fuckup

Yes, Nasrallah has yet to spin this latest achievement, but it is too late; all his charisma and eloquence will fall on deaf ears outside the core believers To those who count. In the minds of most, such is the perception. And, like it or not;

Perception IS reality

And the new reality means that the state’s institutions are now all but destroyed, and the prize Nasrallah took is nothing but an empty shell.

Those still charmed by the myth of the resistance have yet to realize OJ did it. So there is no chance in convincing them otherwise, but even such limited intellects can handle a couple of salient facts; unlike other countries in the Middle East, this little country is far too big for one party alone. And for all the Persian genius, Iran is not Germany, and it cannot take over the Middle East; it is barely holding on to the Tumb Islands.

Those still clinging to talk of “social revolution” have yet to get out of the classroom. There is little hope to make them realize that, whatever the justifications for the “oppositions’” claims, and there are quite a few, all legitimacy was denied by their latest actions. Much as other militias before them, Hezb has risen at the expense of the Lebanese state. As the slow disintegration of the Lebanese state proceeded apace, secular minds could only watch helplessly as fanatical fundamentalist were growing in power.

For the others, there is a new reality. There can be only one;

Either the state or Hezb'O’State

There are no two ways about it; there can be no “two state solution” in Lebanon. Either one state, or none at all;

What is a police force that turns into a militia at the drop of a hat?

What is an army that does not obey the government?

What is a government that cannot impose the rule of law?

What are leaders to whom decision avoidance is policy?

What is a society that cannot protect individuals from sectarian clans?

What is a clan whose members do not stick together?

As long Lebanese politicians waffle around this “two state solution”. There is no real out, and the latest cop out of the council of ministers has just finished off the remnants of the Lebanese state. Hezb still has a long way to go to achieve total victory, but those who claim March 14 are acting far “below” their rhetoric. They can spin their cowardice all they want, but a simple fact emerges; this latest compromise will be seen as weakness, and it will fail in the long run.

Much like a clown on his unicycle, those idiots will have to keep pedalling just to remain in the saddle. Something will give, and they will all fall. So, with this Chapter 7 special tribunal thing on the horizon, and an election where “realists” have a chance of winning;

We’re on our Own.


I've labored long and hard for bread

For honor and for riches

But on my corns too long you've tred,

You fine-haired sons of bitches.

(Bart the Po 8)

Stick a fork in it, this country’s done.


Ghassan said...

A real social revolution is not very highly probable . The conditions just aren't ripe for it. The dissatisfaction with the traditional system of za'ameh , confessionalism and "Wasta"/corruption is barely skin deep. A grass root social revolution requires a personal identity based on belonging to a state rather than a clan or tribe. As a result Lebanon is doomed to, at best, muddle along. The Lebanon of modernity will have to be postponed and that is OK because we have all seen what happens when a revolution is forced from above. It is ultimately rejected even after 70 years.

Yet I feel that the events of the last week are going to bring about a sea change. The friction between the two opposing forces has become so strong that it has become impossible to maintain "status quo" as strained as that might have been. The collision that occured last week has damaged both sides and a new reality will emerge. The shape of the new outcome is the big known "unknown". My own guess is that the new synthesis will move us in the direction of that "modern" state and will not be too kind to the ideas of HA and its allies.
I also believe that the "fear" by some and the "trust" by others of the international tribunal will prove to be misplaced. This has become a cause celebre that as important as it is has become an excuse for one party not to govern and the other to just obfuscate. So no smoking gun is to be found, many such acts have gone unresolved all over the world without becoming a major distraction. Statesmen should be able to chew and walk a straight line.

And finally allow to say that in the final analysis we are on our own. All our problems have been our own creation and we are the only ones that can solve them.

Bad Vilbel said...


Nice writeup. It's funny. I read it right after reading Tony Badran's latest. Where he seems to be somewhat optimistic that M14 is well positioned here, you seem to take a much gloomier outlook overall.

I'm not entirely sure where I stand. I like to believe Tony's analysis, but my gut feeling tells me Lebanon is doomed, based on historical precedents.

Anonymous said...

see Jeha. I told you before. Siniora is worthless and part of the problem so there is no point in backing him. Why cannot we say, as much as we despise HA that M14 are our problem too and that we need new figures.

Jeha's Nail in the Coffin said...

Well if Lebanon is done, I really suggest you pack up shop, close this blog and go live a happy life.....godspeed Jeha.

Solomon2 said...

"all his charisma and eloquence will fall on deaf ears outside the core believers"

Won't any legitimacy Hezbollah lost be regained (and then some) as Hezbollah shifts its focus again to its conflict with Israel?