Agreement, eh? No need for a lengthy analysis to note this;
The agreement does not address the “Weapons of the Resistance”.
This is no mere Second Amendment issue; in Lebanon, the weapons are THE only issue, and should be monopolized by the State in a law-abiding country. As such, the agreement signed was nothing but an act of surrenderto Hezb&Co, thereby confirming their takeover of Lebanon. The valiant leaders went after the crumbs Nasrallah left them, discussing electoral arrangements, ignoring the work their commission did.
Syrian announcement that it has started talks with Israel only confirms that. They have been able to get back into Lebanese affairs by the back door, and now feel they have leverage now. So they are informing the Israelis to come back to the table on their terms. But the Americans have yet to make their real intentions known. In addition, the Israelis may prefer to pass on talks, as some are tempted to consider that such a surrender means that the Lebanese State does not exists, thereby negating any previous agreements they had signed with it...
That's one of the best posts I have seen in weeks. Short an to the point. Until Hizbollah and Amal give up their weapons to the Lebanese Army, there will be no state or government in Lebanon (in the true meaning of these words). Only violent proxies of external powers. The rest is blah blah...
Jeha, I obviously am in total agreement with your assessment. I have already commented on your post at Yalibnan.com. I have just finished a 6 minute Podcast on this subject that you might wish to take a listen to.
Ramblings11.mypodcast.com
Anyway I do not trust that we have accomplished anything besides buying some time at the expense of our principles. Survival at any cost is not survival at all because often the price for staying alive is just too high. If a state can survive only by becoming endentured to another state then it has to question the rationale for its own existence.
Needless to say, I too am in complete agreement. I have been repeating for days now that the ONLY relevant issue is that of weapons because the rest is moot as long as one party can point a gun at the state and its people.
You pretty much nailed that in a much more eloquent way, Jeha.
My ramblings on the matter (pre Doha agreement): thebadvilbel.blogspot.com
Needless to say, your final conclusion (hot july) is EXACTLY why I've been making the rounds this morning calling people "shortsighted".
I don't think Israel will pass on these talks. Not after both Olmert and Moallem made public references to negotations, with Olmert calling the pursuit of peace with Syria "a national duty." Of course, the process can still fail, but something quite serious is afoot.
What the US plans to do about these developments is a real mystery. Is this part of some larger deal related to matters in Iraq? Have the Turks done all this on their own or have the Americans been apprised? Whatever the case may be, it looks like bad news for Lebanon - at least that part of it which isn't relishing rule by Hizbullah.
The Olmert government is too weak to carry out such a major decision. the only issue is the guns, but right now, it looks like the Lebanese will have to mount a second cedar revolution for that goal and it will take much patience. We have yet to see what the March 14 plan is... so far, they seem to have accepted defeat.
It is not good. But as I posted somewhere else, there is nothing the (Western) world can do. Militarily, the USA, France and the UK are overstretched and other Western powers have not the means nor the will to do anything. And without a military, you are nothing in this world (as M14 learned at the expense of Lebanese citizens). So everybody is just happy to call this a draw or even a good thing, when it is actually a complete Hizbollah victory (otherwise, why would have they vacated central Beirut and party like crazy?).
Hazbani thinking. If you have no bullets you will have no ballots. The rest is just an elaboration. If and when the Durzi will give [to whom? ] the non personal weapons [remember Arslan words?] that will mean that they have aquired an aircraft carrier. The price of weapons in Lebanon must be now one of the highest ever. Seems that the only sane alternative are one way tickets. Now that he is out of job what is Senio. going to do? No it is not a Hizb. victory but it is a Leb. defeat and also a defeat of all decent people in the ME, one way ticket, did I mentioned this idea alrady?.
SOLIDA:. There are more than 400 Lebanese citizens still rotting in Syrian Jails, and the government does nothing about it. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Jeha sold his house for a ridiculously low price. But he had one condition; “on one of the walls there is a Nail I do not want to sell". The buyer agreed; after all, what did he need the nail for? After a few days, Jeha came back to the house “to visit his nail”. He soon hung his coat on it, then brought his bed and started to sleep there, to stay close to the nail. Then he brought his family to visit the nail… In the end, the only way the new owner could get rid of him was to buy the nail for a price many times higher than that of the house... This goes to tell you; we may leave Lebanon, but we will NEVER sell that nail.
A Very well researched monograph by on the problems on the southern boundary of Lebanon from the time it was first established by the French and British after World War I. It covers the Zionist thirst for the waters of the Litani, the impotence of the Lebanese government and its neglect of the South and its inhabitants, the PLO, Israel's policies and actions, and finally the Israeli invasions of 1978 and 1982.
"The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy", By Matthew Simmons..
The focus is on Saudi Arabia, home to the largest proven reserves. It is based on analysis of technical papers by ARAMCO engineers. The largest and most productive fields may be at peak production, and current high production is shortening their productive lives. New Saudi fields are unlikely to replace them; extensive exploration has produced little. Soon, Saudi production may not reach the expected 15-20 million BPD.
I like books that challenge orthodox ideology and make you think. Otherwise, we have plain vanilla CNN and Al-Jazeera, each pandering to their lowest common denominator. Such books, however, have to be methodical and well reasoned. You may or may not like what they tell you, and you others yet disprove their findings, but you can find no fault with the method. I find that I learn a lot in the process.
This is easily a “groundbreaking and essential” book. Tim Flannery “argues passionately for the urgent need to address - NOW - the implications of a global climate change that is damaging all life on earth and endangering our very survival”. I have little to add to that…
By answering two question;: “when was the Bible written?” and “why was it written?”, the author places the Hebrew Bible in its historical/social context, and much of it becomes clearer to understand. He also unwittingly illuminates the pre-Islamic Arab word…
"There are lies, damned lies and statistics"… Enough said, go read the book. The math is not too hard, and it should be required reading for anyone who is ever planning in discussing numbers. There are timeless classic; this is one of them.
This is a reading of the Koran from the perspective of the ancient Jahiliyya dialects, closer in some respects to an Aramaic-Arabic mixed language than to modern Arabic. A challenging read and many may consider that the author oversimplifies. But it makes you think and ponder, and the author makes many excellent points.
Many will disagree strongly with Prof. Saliby’s conclusions, many of which fly in the face of archeological evidence. True, this once acclaimed Lebanese historian now apparently belongs to the group of “everyone's got it wrong, I've got it right" conspiracy theorists, but he does raise a few good questions. The mental exercise of debunking him when he overreaches is worth it; all too often, we tend to forget those aspects of Monotheism that go back to Akhenaton…
11 comments:
That's one of the best posts I have seen in weeks. Short an to the point. Until Hizbollah and Amal give up their weapons to the Lebanese Army, there will be no state or government in Lebanon (in the true meaning of these words). Only violent proxies of external powers. The rest is blah blah...
Jeha,
I obviously am in total agreement with your assessment. I have already commented on your post at Yalibnan.com.
I have just finished a 6 minute Podcast on this subject that you might wish to take a listen to.
Ramblings11.mypodcast.com
Anyway I do not trust that we have accomplished anything besides buying some time at the expense of our principles. Survival at any cost is not survival at all because often the price for staying alive is just too high. If a state can survive only by becoming endentured to another state then it has to question the rationale for its own existence.
Needless to say, I too am in complete agreement. I have been repeating for days now that the ONLY relevant issue is that of weapons because the rest is moot as long as one party can point a gun at the state and its people.
You pretty much nailed that in a much more eloquent way, Jeha.
My ramblings on the matter (pre Doha agreement): thebadvilbel.blogspot.com
Needless to say, your final conclusion (hot july) is EXACTLY why I've been making the rounds this morning calling people "shortsighted".
I don't think Israel will pass on these talks. Not after both Olmert and Moallem made public references to negotations, with Olmert calling the pursuit of peace with Syria "a national duty." Of course, the process can still fail, but something quite serious is afoot.
What the US plans to do about these developments is a real mystery. Is this part of some larger deal related to matters in Iraq? Have the Turks done all this on their own or have the Americans been apprised? Whatever the case may be, it looks like bad news for Lebanon - at least that part of it which isn't relishing rule by Hizbullah.
The Olmert government is too weak to carry out such a major decision. the only issue is the guns, but right now, it looks like the Lebanese will have to mount a second cedar revolution for that goal and it will take much patience. We have yet to see what the March 14 plan is... so far, they seem to have accepted defeat.
If DOLLFUSS=HARIRI
IF SSNP=STANDARTE89 (the clandestine SS org in Vienna in 1937)
IF HEZBOLLAH=SA
IF NASRALLAH=ERNEST ROHM
THEN LEBANON=AUSTRIA
SYRIA=GERMANY
ASSAD=....HITLER!!! U can bet on it!
I am dumbfounded at the world liking this result; even Rice is happy. WTF is that all about?
Didn't aan alleged sovereign nation just get ceded to the political and military whims of an armed militia?
How is this good?
It is not good. But as I posted somewhere else, there is nothing the (Western) world can do. Militarily, the USA, France and the UK are overstretched and other Western powers have not the means nor the will to do anything. And without a military, you are nothing in this world (as M14 learned at the expense of Lebanese citizens). So everybody is just happy to call this a draw or even a good thing, when it is actually a complete Hizbollah victory (otherwise, why would have they vacated central Beirut and party like crazy?).
Hazbani thinking.
If you have no bullets you will have no ballots. The rest is just an elaboration.
If and when the Durzi will give [to whom? ] the non personal weapons [remember Arslan words?] that will mean that they have aquired an aircraft carrier.
The price of weapons in Lebanon must be now one of the highest ever. Seems that the only sane alternative are one way tickets.
Now that he is out of job what is Senio. going to do?
No it is not a Hizb. victory but it is a Leb. defeat and also a defeat of all decent people in the ME, one way ticket, did I mentioned this idea alrady?.
You mentioned it. But that's the way of defeated men and women. Vae victis... :-(
Post a Comment