Far from heralding a new era of peace, the
I will address the inherent dangers linked to
Et ta Sœur?
There are two dangerous elements in
The first danger is that the crisis between
The second danger magnifies the firs one; it is related to the Syrian-Israeli talks. The talks are essentially aimed at local consumption by beleaguered leaders who will therefore "spin the failure away" generously. As
Those perceptions may well be far from reality at first, but they are very much in the mind of conspiracy-prone Salafists. Recall that Hezb, when it started, was not much more organized than they were; given time, and money, they will get there soon enough. Now they have the motivation to do so.
No wonder Aouni El-Ahdab is already hedging his bets.
Many fellow Lebanese feel that I am being overly pessimistic. I personally feel they’re deluding themselves. This is not because of some wonderful insight that I may have, but rather because we’re talking about different things; While they are focused on the Probabilties, I am focused on the Risks, and the fact is;
Risk = Probability x Cost
First, the Probability of another flare-up is far from negligible. In the immediate, I feel that, for all the hoopla, too many interests have a stake in the continued poverty of
Multiply the two together, and you will see that the Risks skyrocket, no matter how low the probability is.
At this stage of the game; recent events do appear to indicate that, whatever the facts, the main players in the region are acting on their perceptions of the facts.
So, while many are heading back to