Sunday, May 04, 2008

Why Now?

The Hezb’O’Monitors make no obvious sense.

It makes no sense to use a container. Airport security is already in their pocket, as well as customs and a few others. The countyr’s Hezb’Officials can do as they please and enjoy complete immunity.

It makes no sense for Joumblat to raise a stink about a simple container. Back when Ghanem was assassinated, it was soon obvious that his assassins had inside information, tracking him from the moment he came through the airport under an assumed name. And many of the suspects are still walking free.

So why?

Why raise this topic? Why raise it now?

We can place this controversy in context. We know that Hezb’’O’State within a state is the only state in Lebanon. Maybe this stink is evidence that our ersatz of a government is slowly growing, eating away at the parasite.

It would explain past “discovered” Hezb’O’network made little sense either; the party had control of some of the country’s network. This capability was undermined by the Hariri investigation, as evidence by the early rumours about phone records and tapes… Remember Mr. X? So, the Hezb’O’network may have been not a recent discovery, but a recent construction to maintain capabilities.

This would explain the containers. the “resistance’s” control over the airport may be diminishing. It is set to be diminished further, and the implementation of 1559 may well be proceeding apace.

And the recent controversy would be followed by others, as more and more the capabilities of the “resistance” are eroded away.

Good, Cheap and Fast…

Any project manager knows this motto;

"Good", "Cheap", and "Fast"; pick any two

So, in order to implement 1559 comprehensively without destroying the patient, the UN cannot afford to proceed too fast.

But it will not be fast enough.



Ghassan said...

Timing is everything. Of course Jumblat and others have known about the cameras at the airport for a long time in the same way that they know about the arms smuggling, refusal to let ISF to some areas, illicit communication network, illegal taping into electric power lines etc... The timing is important and might signal an attempt by Jumblat and others to forcw PM Saniora to become a vertebrate. I suspect however that the international community, read that as UNSC, is determined to implement 1559. If you recall, we have discussed this issue a number of times and I have always concluded that eventually 1559 will have to be implemented simply because all chapter 7 resolutions, save the one on Kashmir, have been implemented.It is one thing to neglect non chapter 7 resolutions but it is something else to challenge the will of the International Community. If chapter 7 resolutions are not implemented then the image of the UNSC will suffer immeasurably.

Earlier today I did a quick recalculation of the Julian Simon- Ehrlich wager and it looks that recent price level s give Ehrlich an unquestioned victory in each of the five chosen commodities. I mention this because I am under the impression that you are a supporter of the Simon position while I am on the Ehrlich side.

Jeha said...


Agreed on the first part. But the worrying sign is that, through 1701, 1559 and the armistice of 1949 are linked. This means that our border demarcation with Israel is now irremediably linked with our internal politics, something that never had happened all through the civil war.

On the wager,

I was wondering when you were going to rub my face in it. Yes, Simon is now on the losing side, and by a large margin. But I am still hopeful that human ingenuity will let Simon win the day in the end.

Then again, on the long run, we're all dead.

Riemer Brouwer said...

My bet is that Jumblatt was simply pissed off because of the hostage taking by Hezbollah of the French socialist who was in Lebanon to attend the International Socialist Conference, hosted by Jumblatt.

It was a clear provocation by Hezbollah and now Jumblatt is "returning the favor".

R said...

While I agree with most of what you said, it may be imprudent to assume that Hezbo's control of telecom or the airport is eroding and thus the alternative means. They may simply be buckling down for the inevitable. They understand that with the Syrians out, they are now amidst (lets face it) a very hostile Lebanese cocktail of sects - one more hostile to them than to the other sects by virtue of the Hezbo ideology.
In any case I fear that Hezbo realize that there will be a push to remove them. It may either come from the South, either come from the UNSC, or come in the form of a civil war. Either way they need to enhance their extra-state infrastructure and have an edge over their internal and external opponents. Ulitmately, their suicidal ideology and tactics aregoing to lead to their end.
The question is very simply not how or when but: at what cost to Lebanon ?

I think cost-management is and has been what is behind the timing of most of March 14's policies...

Jeha said...

Yes, Joumblat may be just acting up his irritation, but that guy never does something without some "cost benefit"...