Last time around, those who claim March 14th had found it easier to compromise with Hezb than to accommodate Aoun. This time is not so clear; the real impact of the latest bout of fighting will be shown in the makeup of the future government.
So, as far as the horse race goes, expect Future to work hard to retain Finance and Justice, Hezb to work hard to retain Electricity and Foreign Affairs and watch what happens to the Defence and Interior portfolios. It will also be interesting to note the real place given to the Christian “allies” of Future and Hezb.
As this comedy of lies goes on, we face two possible outcomes here; either, we’ll a president in place, but no Prime Minister, or we’ll have a diminished Prime Minister with an ineffectual government.
The latter probable outcome carries the larger risk. It hangs on one question; will Hariri go for the PM post?
The odds are not good that any Prime Minister will be able to do much more than manage the current “cold peace” that
And Hariri is neither. Furthermore, the fact remains that Hariri is the main Sunni powerbroker in
Should he fail, the bickering will resume, which will put him on collision course with President Suleiman, and therefore the many Christians who support him.
And since this remains a sectarian game...