Monday, May 26, 2008

Yes, Prime Minister

Now that we have a President, the business of finding a suitable Premier and making up the new government can proceed.

The D’Oha effect

Last time around, those who claim March 14th had found it easier to compromise with Hezb than to accommodate Aoun. This time is not so clear; the real impact of the latest bout of fighting will be shown in the makeup of the future government.

So, as far as the horse race goes, expect Future to work hard to retain Finance and Justice, Hezb to work hard to retain Electricity and Foreign Affairs and watch what happens to the Defence and Interior portfolios. It will also be interesting to note the real place given to the Christian “allies” of Future and Hezb.

As this comedy of lies goes on, we face two possible outcomes here; either, we’ll a president in place, but no Prime Minister, or we’ll have a diminished Prime Minister with an ineffectual government.

Cold Peace…

The latter probable outcome carries the larger risk. It hangs on one question; will Hariri go for the PM post?

Should he?

The odds are not good that any Prime Minister will be able to do much more than manage the current “cold peace” that Doha has crystallized. For this reason, whoever becomes Premier will have to either be a technocrat, or a “fuse” that shields the Sunnis from any failure.

And Hariri is neither. Furthermore, the fact remains that Hariri is the main Sunni powerbroker in Lebanon, in spite of his many flaws and failures. The trial period is over. That he had failed so far does not augur well for any future success. Now is even harder, as he has set the bar too high and will struggle to either deliver or walk away from earlier commitments. And he wil be under both external pressure from his Western and Saudi backers, and internal pressure from most Lebanese.

Should he fail, the bickering will resume, which will put him on collision course with President Suleiman, and therefore the many Christians who support him.

And since this remains a sectarian game...

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Fatfat for Prime Minister :D

Lalebanessa said...

3amto Bahia for PM

helen said...

these comments are too funny... Jeha you are voicing out what everybody thinks. we are in for bad game.

ghassan karam said...

If we are to judge a PM by what he does and not by what he says ( And that is the best yardstick isn't it?) then we are left to conclude that Hezbollah have been served very well by Saniora, thank you.