Thursday, June 05, 2008

a Tale of 3 Generals

The situation in Lebanon is easy to summarize;

A General left,

A General Arrived,

And the General’s screwed.

Back to the Future?

In that context, the rest of this week’s manoeuvres are easy to understand. Aoun is indeed aware of his predicament, and is fighting hard to maintain his position. But it will not work.

June ’08 is much like June 05

If “the” General holds off for too high a price, his “partners” in the “opposition” will sell him out in a deal with Hariri, just like Hariri did in June 05 when he made a deal with the then-“majority”.

However, there is one difference with June ’05. Back then, Aoun was perceived to be the only Christian alternative, and in many ways, he was. However, he squandered that opportunity, and now finds himself increasingly isolated, with a potentially formidable rival in the Presidency.

Ahoy, Matey!

With a president Suleiman in place, Aoun will have a very hard time staying afloat this coming election season. If he last that long; heading Murr’s example, the rats will start leaving his sinking FPM ship very soon.

Unlike Lahoud, this General knows his way around a battlefield. Let’s hope he knows his way around the far more dangerous antechambers of Lebanese “power”.

If he does, then president Suleiman could grow from the current Sarkis to the future Shehab. Indeed, the field is wide open, and there is a wide room for a secular-minded leader to manoeuvre himself and occupy the centre. The extremes are ripe for “downsizing”; Aoun’s diminished, Hariri’s discredited, Nasrallah’s uncovered, and Berri’s unmasked

If he does not, God help the Armadillos.

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