However, as many of us learned when we “bribed” our way through tough situations, for appeasement to work, there are a couple of prerequisites.
First, that both appeasee and appeaser understand one another’s limits, and are willing to stick to them. And second, that the appeasee you’re appeasing needs something you’re willing, and able, to “deliver”.
First: Thugs and Fanatics
Indeed, as they try to appease thugs and fanatics, appeasers soon discover that such appeasees can be so uncouth and uncivilized. Back in the late 30's, both Chamberlain and Stalin were mistaken; Hitler's word could not be his bind. Our situation today is similar; those who follow God need not be concerned with the words of man.
But in our context, we’ve moved to a level beyond Chamberlain’s and Stalin’s appeasement efforts . back then, the appeasers could afford it; the British had a pretty good anti-tank ditch, and the Russians more than 4,000 km of "buffer"… w’el rasputista, k##s emma? We find ourselves in a situation similar to 1940's France. Without such natural advantages to balance out the incompetence of their geriatric état major, many French felt an armistice would provide them with a decent way out.
However, just as soon as he signed the armistice with Hitler, good ol’marechal Pétain found out, much to his dishonour, that the Germans of the day would keep pushing back. and back. And then, his
In a similar vein, our modern version of the cagoulards who claim leadership of March 14th have barely managed an armistice of sorts. They may hope that such displays of Byzantine elegance will intimate Hezb into “collaborating with the state”. But fudge is no solution.
Second: The Bottom Line
An additional problem for
One would think that the creator of time and dimensions had something better to do than to worry about the slice of land that represents less than 10-9848448293 % of the surface area of the known universe (not factoring soil erosion). One would think that the creator of mathematics, time, space, and the laws of physics would not need the help of a few naked apes whose totality represents less than 10-398133211884184482133293 % of the volume of the known universe (not factoring hair loss).
But one would be wrong.
But hubris and human stupidity are each far bigger than the universe. Yes, we humans are myth-makers who cannot live “with bread alone”. On the plus side, This makes for an interesting existence, with imagination filling in for reason every once in while. However, a few amongst us take myths at face value, and are thus immune to reason. And now, they have weapons, and a few more reasons to keep them...
In the immediate, what this means to our local edition of the Fils de Pétain is simple.
They think that a fudging and creative wording such as the “right of
On the other "side", Nasrallah knows what he is doing. He is using the short-sightedness of those “leaders” who claim to represent March 14th, and he is taking over
He who runs away from a scuffle will only stumble into a bigger fight
In a sign of things to come, the few who appear to have realized this are Geagea, Chamoun, Gemayel, Joumblat, and the mouvance in Bab-El-Tabbaneh. They are all preparing and hedging at the same time.
And they have played this game before.
Last time, the Syrians came in. Since they have been pulling the strings of this farce, they hope to repeat the same trick. But this time, things are more complicated; in spite of their supporters (or because of them), they may find themselves be too busy at home. The fundamental paradox of the Syrian politics remains today, and may even be stronger. So;
Any new edition of the Lebanese civil war will be for export...