Saturday, August 02, 2008

Fils de Pétain

Appeasement can work.

Indeed, it can.

However, as many of us learned when we “bribed” our way through tough situations, for appeasement to work, there are a couple of prerequisites.

First, that both appeasee and appeaser understand one another’s limits, and are willing to stick to them. And second, that the appeasee you’re appeasing needs something you’re willing, and able, to “deliver”.

In today's Lebanon’s, neither requirement is met.

First: Thugs and Fanatics

Indeed, as they try to appease thugs and fanatics, appeasers soon discover that such appeasees can be so uncouth and uncivilized. Back in the late 30's, both Chamberlain and Stalin were mistaken; Hitler's word could not be his bind. Our situation today is similar; those who follow God need not be concerned with the words of man.

But in our context, we’ve moved to a level beyond Chamberlain’s and Stalin’s appeasement efforts . back then, the appeasers could afford it; the British had a pretty good anti-tank ditch, and the Russians more than 4,000 km of "buffer"w’el rasputista, k##s emma? We find ourselves in a situation similar to 1940's France. Without such natural advantages to balance out the incompetence of their geriatric état major, many French felt an armistice would provide them with a decent way out.

However, just as soon as he signed the armistice with Hitler, good ol’marechal Pétain found out, much to his dishonour, that the Germans of the day would keep pushing back. and back. And then, his Vichy “government” could only watch as IG Farben et al. conquered much of France’s industry, and as collaborators

In a similar vein, our modern version of the cagoulards who claim leadership of March 14th have barely managed an armistice of sorts. They may hope that such displays of Byzantine elegance will intimate Hezb into “collaborating with the state”. But fudge is no solution.

They have another thing coming.

Second: The Bottom Line

An additional problem for Lebanon, this particular bran of appeasees does not limit itself to mundane goals.

One would think that the creator of time and dimensions had something better to do than to worry about the slice of land that represents less than 10-9848448293 % of the surface area of the known universe (not factoring soil erosion). One would think that the creator of mathematics, time, space, and the laws of physics would not need the help of a few naked apes whose totality represents less than 10-398133211884184482133293 % of the volume of the known universe (not factoring hair loss).

But one would be wrong.

But hubris and human stupidity are each far bigger than the universe. Yes, we humans are myth-makers who cannot live “with bread alone”. On the plus side, This makes for an interesting existence, with imagination filling in for reason every once in while. However, a few amongst us take myths at face value, and are thus immune to reason. And now, they have weapons, and a few more reasons to keep them...

Back in 1940 France, the hero of Verdun had become senile, too disconnected from reality to realise the messianic mission of the apostle of Germania.

In Lebanon, our brothers in (the Party of) God are no less fanatical. True heirs to Khomeini, they are assembled in a “Party of God”, embarked on a no less messianic, and far more marketable mission. Those reformed Quislings who delude themselves as “leaders” of March 14th disregard this to their peril.

...And ours.

Incitement

In the immediate, what this means to our local edition of the Fils de Pétain is simple.

They think that a fudging and creative wording such as the “right of Lebanon, its people, army and resistance to liberate or reclaim its land” matters. But no word can stop a messianic leader and his “Party of God”.

On the other "side", Nasrallah knows what he is doing. He is using the short-sightedness of those “leaders” who claim to represent March 14th, and he is taking over Lebanon. Slowly but surely. By then, it will be too late when they learn that:

He who runs away from a scuffle will only stumble into a bigger fight

In a sign of things to come, the few who appear to have realized this are Geagea, Chamoun, Gemayel, Joumblat, and the mouvance in Bab-El-Tabbaneh. They are all preparing and hedging at the same time.

And they have played this game before.

Last time, the Syrians came in. Since they have been pulling the strings of this farce, they hope to repeat the same trick. But this time, things are more complicated; in spite of their supporters (or because of them), they may find themselves be too busy at home. The fundamental paradox of the Syrian politics remains today, and may even be stronger. So;

Any new edition of the Lebanese civil war will be for export...

video

2 comments:

danny said...

We have Hobson's Choice...

Either fight the well trained disciplined, salaried and well indoctrinated army of God's fanatics: Result: Total destuction of whatever is left from the country called Lubnan...

Or

Appease and get fornicated anyhow...Result: See above; only delayed by a few months or a year...

The only solution that March 14 is PRAYING for is that Iran's will get bombed and HA will get entangled with that war...Result: See above only with better results (PRAYING AGAIN)...

Anonymous said...

Jeha,

Anything that is built on rotten foundations will be doomed to fail. So HA now are a regional power due to the monies and army of Iran...so if nothing is free...HA and its people are puppets or slaves ready to commit suicide whenever their master orders them to do so and when their master reaches a point when they become a burden or useless they will be left with nothing...This is a temporary situation...14th of March should wake up and stop this defeatist mentality...and stop talking about the national unity and nonsense slogans...after all people should wake up and say no we are not going to accept that HA will drag us one more time into a destructive war..as the lebanese adage says...MICH KILL MARRA BI TISSLAM IL JARRAH