Georgia on my Mind

Ah, the ironies of the Great Game…

There is much hyperbole and little fact/background in teh news nowadays. The media is not really aware that , in its invasion of Georgia, the Kremlin has taught the White House a masterly lesson in geography, teaching them Yankees not to venture too far into mother Russia’s “Near Abroad”. You would think the State Department’s Kremlinologist-en-chef would know better, but recall that she (and most others) misread (to put it mildly) the collapse of the Soviet Union, in spite of much evidence… How about putting some real Russia experts on the payroll?

However, is Tsar Putin now overreaching? Or is he merely going for some more leverage?

Syria’s Russian Gamble

In the short term, the Syrian move towards Russia may pay off. On one easter front/province, the Lebanese leadership appears cowed, for now, and their Hezb’O’Clients have the run of the land. On the southern front, a headless Israeli government is providing them with the necessary cover.

This venture into Russia’s “Near Abroad” may well pay off in the immediate. But Assad’s regime is far weaker than it appear; not only is his support largely based on a shaky sectarian base, he is unable to secure his own high command’s security. Yes, he can still pull the strings in Lebanon, and he will do so forcefully. But this will only confirm what Hezb’s last “victory” has achieved; to confine Syria’s “support” in Lebanon to the imprisoned Shiite community. And even then, it’s not much of support; who do you think carried out those attacks that were carried out against Syrian workers?

“Eminent Domain” versus “Near Abroad”

however, On the long run, because of this shaky support the Syrian hopes are likely to be dashed.

We Lebanese have learned that you cannot fight geography; much of our opposition to Syria has more to do with the current sectarian mafia that rules the country, and little with the country itself. After all, many of us have family there, and more do good a brisk business.

However, the Syrians are still stuck in the days of the Damascus Congress, with assembly of pseudo-representatives (s)elected on the “selective, rather than the elective principle”, claimed us as part of a “Greater Syria”, as well as with what today is Iraq, Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Territories. Some like to add Cyprus to the mix… I guess as long as they’re dreaming…

All Syrians grew up soaking in the myth of glorious Omeyyads, the stories of the deviousness of those “Isolationists” in the wayward “Eastern Province”, the plight of occupied Iskenderun. This current crop of Syrian leaders may actually have been raised to believe this newspeak, and the mirage of Greater Syria leads them to venture into the “Near Abroad”.

As they venture deeper, the Syrian leadership may be getting ready for another geography lesson, a crash course in the Carter Doctrine.

American Geography

The Carter Doctrine is little more than a 20^th Century version of the Monroe Doctrine.

The Monroe Doctrine is often mistaken as purely isolationist. And in a sense, it is; but when the 5^th President of the United States considered America’s “Eminent Domain”, King Coal reigned supreme and his country was (and still is) its Saudi Arabia. Today, Oil is the blood of the economy, and, with more than 40% of proven reserves, the Middle East is its bleeding heart… And Hormuz its jugular vein.

In the immediate, the Americans are distracted with their elections. But come November, whoever is elected will have to worry about how to power all those Abram tanks. Mc Cain may waste less time navel gazing than Obama, but either one will ultimately move to reassert America’s right on its own “Eminent Domain”.

And the fact remains that Syria, like Lebanon and the rest of the Middle East, are part of America’s “Eminent Domain”. And unless there’s another Nakhimov waiting in the wings, the Siloviki may not be willing to push far beyond Sebastopol. And the Bitkhonim in Israel may not really follow through with Brest-Litovsk, especially if the Americans remain unwilling to sell out Lebanon.

So, since the Syrian regime will one day learn that simple leitmotif; you cannot fight geography, especially not when you continue oppressing your own people and proclaiming fake reforms. So , now that they back from their Bastille Day vacation, maybe we should start them on the Dummies version of Geography, Lesson 1, which we owe to the mismanagement of generations of short-sighted Arab "leaders";

It may be our sand, but it’s their oil.