Friday, September 05, 2008

Oops! I did it again

Those who ignore the lessons of history are condemned to repeat it. The same goes for those who misunderstand those lessons.

Lebanon’s was subjected to successive tragedies by the miscalculations of its past leaders. Each in their turn followed the Syrian model; use their own sectarian base, and leverage a political issue to rule the entire country.

It did not work.

Hezb seems to think it can work for them this time around; after all, they have “the Shiites” united behind them. The sectarian logic appears impeccable; after all, it worked for Syria’s Alawites, didn’t it?

It will not work.

The same sectarian logic defeats it. Once you divide a country into sectarian groups, the communities themselves will be divided. In the past, “the maronites” who were united under the banner of the Lebanese Forces in their little canton soon find themselves fighting amongst one another. From Safra, to Intifada, to Harb-el-Tahrir, “they” brought upon the country more Syrian oppression.

In addition, the regional equation does not support it. Relying on the support of the Syrians and Iranians may not ingratiate Hezb to the people who really matter now; the Saudis. The Saudi-Iranian struggle in the Gulf is slowly seeping into Lebanon, and turning the conflict with Hezb into a Sunni-Shiite conflict.

It has already started.

What did they expect after invading Beirut. What do they expect after attacking the army?

It does not take a veteran to realize that mere gunmen cannot shoot down an army helicopter. Even the Lebanese Army’s antique Huey chopper are beyond the reach of the average AK or M16, and require more potent firepower, and a more stable firing platform.

It does not take a geographer to realize that the region where the chopper was brought down is controlled by Hezb. And as such, Hezb is responsible; either their goons acted willingly, or they were incompetent to control their own region.

Either way, it does not take a logician to see who really did this; it is whoever killed Rafic Hariri, constantly undercut the state, invaded Beirut and violently brought down a government.

And what if Nasrallah was no mere liar or mythomaniac? What if he was sincere in his claims of innocence?

Then it is worse than we though; he lost control over his goons.

Or maybe he never did; Assad remains a "player", after all.


Anonymous said...

"it is whoever killed Rafic Hariri"

Hizballah are to blame for a lot of crap in this county, but what makes you think they did this?

Jeha said...

Anon 16:29

At this stage, the facts matter little, and what I think matters even less. However, Hezb has made so many enemies that they are being accused of all the crap in the country. Nasrallah has alienated so many the he is already blamed for everything.

It's a Lebanese tradition; blame a scapegoat for all ills. If Hezb prevails, it will matter little. But Lebanon is not Syria, and no single "side" has been able to remain top dog for long.