Those who ignore the lessons of history are condemned to repeat it. The same goes for those who misunderstand those lessons.
It did not work.
Hezb seems to think it can work for them this time around; after all, they have “the Shiites” united behind them. The sectarian logic appears impeccable; after all, it worked for
It will not work.
The same sectarian logic defeats it. Once you divide a country into sectarian groups, the communities themselves will be divided. In the past, “the maronites” who were united under the banner of the Lebanese Forces in their little canton soon find themselves fighting amongst one another. From Safra, to Intifada, to Harb-el-Tahrir, “they” brought upon the country more Syrian oppression.
In addition, the regional equation does not support it. Relying on the support of the Syrians and Iranians may not ingratiate Hezb to the people who really matter now; the Saudis. The Saudi-Iranian struggle in the Gulf is slowly seeping into
It has already started.
What did they expect after invading Beirut. What do they expect after attacking the army?
It does not take a veteran to realize that mere gunmen cannot shoot down an army helicopter. Even the Lebanese Army’s antique Huey chopper are beyond the reach of the average AK or M16, and require more potent firepower, and a more stable firing platform.
It does not take a geographer to realize that the region where the chopper was brought down is controlled by Hezb. And as such, Hezb is responsible; either their goons acted willingly, or they were incompetent to control their own region.
Either way, it does not take a logician to see who really did this; it is whoever killed Rafic Hariri, constantly undercut the state, invaded
And what if Nasrallah was no mere liar or mythomaniac? What if he was sincere in his claims of innocence?
Then it is worse than we though; he lost control over his goons.
Or maybe he never did; Assad remains a "player", after all.