Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Salami Tactics

The Syrians are nothing if not persistent.

Rather than learning from the strategic mistakes that led to their ignominious defeats in April ’05, they are following the same tried and true tactics that led to our ignominious surrender in ‘76.

Simple, “slice by slice”, salami tactics.

First, they activate some local supporters. Nothing wrong with that, we share so much that it is hard to refute that, just like Belgium and France, we’re much the same people in two countries. Much like Belgium and France, however, I’d rather we keep it that way.

Then, they activate some loonier outfits, keeping enough plausible deniability to ensure the blame is not all laid on their door. When one of those backfires, that does not stop them from trying again. At some point, their Lebanese allies will "retaliate" against Israel's attack on Hummus.

You can take our land, but you can never, ever, take our falafel!

Then again, that part depends on Iran, and the Mullahs appear to have grown cautious. Lebanese cuisine may be excellent, but it is nothing compared to the witches' brew those Persians Barbudos are cooking... Or thinking they're cooking.

They can also claim that some of their citizens have been kidnapped in Lebanon. That’s an easy charge to make; they only need to list those citizens their own services continue to “disappear”.

Well, it's not that Bashar is afraid OF freedom. He's afraid FOR freedom.

And yes, he'll still respect you in the morning.

I would not be surprised to see Michel Kilo or others on the list of those we ungrateful Lebanese isolationists kidnapped. They could also blame those devious Jews, but for now, the objective remains Beirut and its banks.

Then, since this regain of “activity” does not get them much attention, why not throw in a tantrum closer to home? Yes, the side effect would be the loss of a few Syrian lives, but it’s not like this regime has not been there before… So just add them to the Hama roster, it’s only statistics, after all.

And after that, follow-up this regain of activity with some good ol’ fashioned bombing, and since the Iranians appear to be too cautious (for now), why not some ol’ time kidnapping(s)?

As he gathers his Schutzstaffel, Bashar is hoping that someone Sooner or later, someone may well ask the “secular” Syrian regime to join the fight against the common “Jihadist” enemy, and take charge of security in Northern Lebanon. Then the whole of Lebanon... Bwahahaha.

In that respect, the Syrians appear to be "betting on Barak". But if the Syrians expect him to change course on foreign policy and undermine his country’s own interests, they have another thing coming. Personally, I do not trust the guy, though smarter people distrust McCain. But I know one thing; whatever Obama's disagreements with McCain on foreign policy, they are merely tactical.

The US strategy remains the same.

And the Syrian “salami tactic” remains just that; a tactic. And no substitute for strategy.

No comments: