Saturday, November 08, 2008

Bananey Sananey

Back during the heat of the election, when Joe “motor mouth” Biden cautioned that “this president would be tested”, he got a lot of flack. He had a point, however, but one the media skipped over; any new president will appear to be undergoing a test when he resumes office.

However, even this is simplistic; most crises are the result of complex events that pre-date the election. Perceptions can simply exacerbate some of them and their effect, as foreign adversaries miscalculate.

In our case, Dr. Bashar may be making a similar analysis as one of his more illustrious predecessors, confusing the cyclical changing of the guards in the United States with the passing of an era. This perception is leading him to start cranking up the pressure on his opponents in Lebanon. After the comparison with Georgia, soon he’ll be painting Lebanon as another version of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. True, Saad is been laden with money (rires). True, he had not been showing much good judgement so far. However, he has far less links to “Jihadists” that the good Doctor Bashar.

If the Syrians are really serious about coming back to Lebanon, they need to start picking on bigger statures than the puny Lebanese politicos. To do so, they need a little more than infomercials or empty rhetoric.

Yes, the American administration has changed. But what has changed is the style, not the substance, and definitely not the core interests.

Yes, the Americans are not above selling us (again). However, if Lebanon is nowhere near the top of the agenda, neither is Syrian. So Bashar needs to really deliver something to the Americans. But he has to take into account that, this time, as a result of Saudi, Egyptian, and Iranian involvement, Lebanon’s price just went up.

And the Americans will want cash, upfront.

3 comments:

ghassan karam said...

Unfortunately, Bush's unilateralism and pre-emption has given all dictators a justification for aggression and reactionary policies. If it is good for the goose then it is good for the gander. What a mess!!!

Nobody said...

Yes, the Americans are not above selling us (again). However, if Lebanon is nowhere near the top of the agenda, neither is Syrian. So Bashar needs to really deliver something to the Americans. But he has to take into account that, this time, as a result of Saudi, Egyptian, and Iranian involvement, Lebanon’s price just went up.

In the next few years the US will be busy with the escalating economic crisis that may be severely aggravated by the Democrats economic mismanagement. The US will have little energy and resources left to pay attention to Lebanon/Syria. The same goes about Russia by the way that has already burned through 25% of its rainy day funds which seem to be not so big after all in the face of such a mess.

On the bright side I would rather bet on a possibility of a tremendous economic collapse in Syria hit both by continuous droughts (global warming), declining oil production and its runaway demographics.

And giving my imagination a free license to run amok, I can easily see Syria disintegrating and another Anbar province created in a huge area covering large chunks of Syria and Northern Lebanon. How by the way your Salafis are doing these days?

This is my two cents about the future.

frenchy said...

I am sorry but obama's admin will be worst then the bush one.

If they are making the retirement of Iraq, which is indirectly supporting the VP partition plan, we ll face in middle and long term an increase of the fundamentalist terrorism that would threaten all the region including lebanon.

and emanuel rahm presence as head of obama cabinet is not a motive of satisfaction for the lebanese interest especially for strenghting the lebanese army.