In the immediate, the Lebanese state institution is in really bad shape. After so much messing around, the constitution has been all but destroyed, and what was left of the state is slowly withering away.
At this stage, whether the feuding clans may not want war is immaterial; each side underestimates the other’s resolve, each overestimates its own cohesion, each misunderstands its own allies’ true motivations... The result of this brinkmanship may bring the country’s final demise. The bickering has (further) weakened the state’s institutions, and as respect for the rule of law withers away, the pissing contest is gotting messier. The warlords may even lose control over their pawns as various factions fight over turf.
Hezb’s adversaries are not necessarily Lebanon’s friends, and they may even love watching the mess, at least in the short term. They know that the destruction of the Lebanese economy will not strengthen Nasrallah’s state within a non-state; by killing its host, a parasite brings on its own demise.
The Clouds Further Away
In the medium term, however,
1- There he was in
2- He appeared also in
3- He was involved in the Khobar attack. Apparently, the local Bin Laden franchisee did not do that deed… Or at least, not yet; we’ll find about this later.
No, climate Change may not be pinned on him, but expect to see a few more “revelations” over the coming few days.
Mughnieh was no boy-scout, but neither was he Fantômas… All this “marketing” hints that something larger has been set in motion with his death. They may loom large in
The Syrians appear to understand this now, but they too far gone down the impasse to heed any warnings. They are bravely trying to avoid accusations for treason, either by claiming incompetence, or by accusing those devious Lebanese of the killing. But they have upset far too many people, and even Al-Jazeera may not be able to spin this one for them; March 14th or Siniora as the Godfather?
Nasrallah may find that anger is a poor policy guide. He can still motivate ‘em, but quite a few now realize that, while Syria is driving him towards a precipice, but so is Iran expending them for larger goals… For all practical purposes, and in spite of all the talk, he has cut himself off from the rest of Lebanon. And now, as the prosecution gathers its “evidence”, he will now be associated with Mugnieh’s alleged crimes. This will find him cut-off from the rest of the Arab world, with far too little of Lebanon left for him to hide behind…
So, will the sins of the sons be visited upon the fathers?