First, it now establishes that Lebanon is indeed a failed state. We're beyond simple electile dysfunction; the absence of the rule of law had already been documented, it is now exposed to the outside world. The Lebanese government now has received two warnings. The first warning comes from its hawkish American protectors that it needed to live up to its responsibilities, or face the consequences of its incompetence. The second warning is from Hezb’O’’Partners that it better do no such thing, lest Bachar’s promise to Hariri be realized.
More accurately, those of us who ignore its lessons. Humans like today’s “leaders” with their excessive focus on the short term, often invite even more trouble.
In Lebanon, history matters supremely. Our “leaders”, however, often ignore its lessons and obfuscate the truth. As they scurry around missing election deadlines and bullying the nation, their respective masters are working hard behind the scenes to sell us down the river…
At first blush, it appears that Syria would get the land back... A land where no Syrians are allowed, and where American radars will monitor Syrian goat movements (No troops will be allowed anywhere near the region). Aland without water…
In response to such a Syrian “advance”, NeoLibs are jumping with excitement as they see their “talk” bear fruition.
They are angry at the NeoCons for leaking out information about the Syrian reactor. Yes, the timing of the information release is aimed at “misguiding congress”, as it endangers the North Korean deal. However, whether this is a “distraction” remains beside the point. From our perspective; if the Syrian’s talk about peace is serious, so should their actions.
...
It is a sad fact that, for all the professed peace loving, the NeoLib’s worldview is no less stereotypical than the NeoCons. It is essentially an elitist mindset that assumes that “Leaders” can sign away what their own people would not relinquish. Whatever one thinks of the merits of the underlying popular claims, this expectation is unrealistic; recall the last Arab “leader” who promised to sign his people’s rights away? After he failed to deliver, he could only wither away in disgrace, exiled from the land he claimed to cherish. His people had little option but to give him a hero’s burial, in gratitude for services (not) rendered.
The pattern continues today. We Lebanese are limited to choosing among war criminals, pretentious politicians, petty demagogues, false prophets... Is the hype so loud as to hide all their lies?
Back to the Past
The trouble with lost political “purity” is that it is hard to reclaim… From compromise to compromise, such “leaders” will each sell their (respective) people short. They have turned their coats far too often, and can only lower their pants.
For now, it appears the Israelis are not biting. But they may do so under different circumstances; today’s petty trading is nothing new in our region’s history.
Back in 1919, some of the hopes of a nascent nation were once signed away by its self proclaimed King of the Arabs who longed for the throne of Damascus. Back then, Lebanonwas part of the deal.
Today, some of the hopes of the exiled nation(s) today are being sold at a bargain price by a self proclaimed Champion of the Palestinians eager to keep his throne in Damascus. And today, Lebanonis still part of the deal.
who claim they can change the world by talk. They are also likely to make it even worse.
And why is that? Simply because each misunderstood Teddy Roosevelt’s tried and true method;
“have always been fond of the West African proverb: "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far”
Each one of those simpletons confined themselves to one part of this sentence.
The NeoCons prefer the Big Stick.
By relying on force, they hope that dictators would marshal those pesky Ragheads into accepting whatever diktat suited the great and good. Their “New Middle East” would continue to witness Arafat’s lies and deceits, Mubarak’s grip on power, and Bashar’s bloody dictatorship… Whatever you do, please do it quietly as long as you’re willing to sign a “peace” treaty with Israel.
The NeoLibs prefer the Soft Talk.
By relying on suasion, they hope that those pesky Camel Jockeys would herd themselves into a less confrontational stance. They will soon propose their own “Improved Middle East”, with restless, messy states, mis-governed by smallish strongmen who will carry on our great tradition of sectarian strife… Whatever you do, please do it quietly as long as you’re fighting away from Israel…
The NeoPilots Like Both of Them...
It is a wonder that no one ever tried a less dogmatic approach to the Middle East. After all, the region is rather easy to figure out once you pragmatically remove the prisms of ideology. It is amazing how little Americans understand of their own history, and how little they comprehend of the Founding Father’s wisdom. Had they missed Benjamin Franklin’s;
“Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety”
Or maybe those simpletons think that freedom can be “walled in”. So I will put it in plain English; our Freedomand your "Essential Liberty" are intertwined, and our "Temporary Safety" and your security are deeply linked…
Those who ignore it will let either NeoCon’s or NeoLib’s lead the United States into making further mistakes. And when the next Carpet Pilot will fly their way into another high rise building, or worse, they will blame all but themselves.
[Snobama] effectively told the Iraqis once again that they weren't worth anything to America. If violence and corruption were controllable, if Al-Qaeda was still around but was limited to Iraq proper, if Washington could stomach the Iranian manipulation of Iraqis, then it made little difference what the deeper aspirations of Iraqis in general were. Iraq could be a suppurating wound at the heart of the Middle East - a suppurating wound, Obama has tirelessly reminded us, which the US helped create - but that counted for little when faced with the American urge to get out as soon as possible.
However, the implication is not a joke, not really; the fools abound. One of them got angry at me because I berated him for ranting about "Alawite Dictators". Another was adamant about the "Shiite Crescent". Yet another insisted on "Fanatical Sunnis"... The point I kept making to those intellectuals is simple to understand for anyone who does not buy whoppers such as Obama's crapola; whoever your "uncles" are, whatever the support (you think) you need, sectarian politics can explain things (particularly in the Middle East), but they cannot justify policies or form the basis of opinion.
Think about it; whichever community you belong to, through your many conversations in Lebanon you may have overheard similar discussion threads. One hypocrisy at a time, we’re slowly “drifting” into a zone of “soft bigotry”, with people harping on the supposed evil motivations of the “others” and their nefarious plans.
But No One Really Wants War...
Of course not. No one wants war. Well, not really. Not intentionally…
No one really wanted the first one.
No one really wanted nor planned any of the region’s orgies of confessional massacres, global imprisonments, mass graves, widespread kidnappings…
No one plans to become a refugee of hubris, be emigrated away from their country, or become the jailers of their fellow brothers….
No one really prepares for such things.
But once the road to hell is paved with the good intentions of politicians, we will easily walk on it, step by incremental step, led on by the soft bigotry of a growing racist expectation…
After All, They All Did It, Didn’t They?
Of all the people who were led down this road to carry out such atrocities, only the Germans learned the Lesson of history… Well, maybe not so well.
Not everything that happens, good or bad, can be really planned for or thought of… We Lebanese may well be laying the grounds for something that will improve of the innovations of the former Yugoslavs. Yes, our past performance is not encouraging in this respect; we Lebanese did not even go as far the Turks in their orgy of massacre, but there’s hope for us to best them all… And more.
So however you worship, do keep up the pace. Keep up the talk about Devious Sunnis, Treacherous Shiites, Untrustworthy Druze, or Crusading Christians…
What’s the relation between the number of Nobel Peace Laureates and the probability of peace?
An Inverse Correlation.
After all, Ghandi was never considered worthy of the prize, was he? So we should not be too harsh on Jimmy Carter; after all, the best ex-president of the United States is only trying to live up to this peace prize by inadvertently heating things up here for us peones...
In his misguided foray, he is trying harder than even Henry "Cambodia" Kissinger ever dared, and we can be assured that whatever deals he makes in the region will have as much staying power as Lester B. Pearson’s "Thin Blue Line". But such is expected; after the “success” of the Camp David accord, Carter can only go down from that.
However, Carter is at least trying to do a better job than other laureates, some of whom he contributed to "make".
Indeed, the prize money was not enough for Anwar "Islamic Brotherhood" Sadate. He had to continue Egypt’s tradition of corruption and nepotism. He had big shoes to fill, after all, and the current Pharaoh can only continue the tradition, The lofty ideals did not rub-off on Menachem "Irgun" Begin. Soon after, he had to invade Lebanon in an attempt to enforce peace over there. It all ended with Sabra and Shatila, the “War of the Mountain”... and, perversely, to the rise of Hezb’O.
Some may feel disappointed that Carter’s best efforts go unrecognized. The “Middle Fool” unable to meet with fellow laureates.
There is much “signal noise” being generated in and around the Middle East these days. More “noise” than “news”.
There is much talk about a testifying general, an investigator who’s missing “key witness” and who may be going nowhere(?), another investigation that is being “cooked”, jawjaw among lame ducks while one successor quietly readies himself, a couple of touring Lebanese officials, the future hopes of an ex-president, some tourists “going native”… Nothing of substance, really, but the papers must write up something.
And so, in spite of a few (funny) exceptions, newspapers can only report on the noise.
The Local Mess
In the Middle East, nothing worthwhile is likely to happen before the results of the elections in the United States.
Sure, there will likely be a killing or two, another invasion, or another war. But matter no more than the movement of the waves preceding the tide. We local peones hardly matter in the grand scheme of things.
We can only watch the flowing and ebbing of influences. The allure of Lebanon is likely to keep tugging at Syria; yesterday the Assad clan was in retreat, now it is advancing… The Syrians may never be allowed back in Lebanon, but they have nothing else to do
Or they’re “owned” by it. So whatever the facts, some politicos will try to use the issue as a punching bag to mark some points against the other side. At this stage, however, it all remains useless grand standing.
Whoever reads history has wondered at some point about the fall of Roman Empire, or the disintegration of the Chinese Empire. Many great books have been written about the underlying causes and mechanisms, but the debate remains unsettled.
Or, more likely, there is no underlying cause; a downfall is made up of small stuff.
So there are no small battles for the survival of civilization; here and there, some odd things chip away at the common values who hold together a society. The stories are odd enough to be reported, but few people did any deeper, and the facts remain hidden among the little oddities of life…
But the facts are not odd. This latest tidbit in the British media was interesting; it seems a polygamist can be allowed exceptions in order to honour his multiple wives, all in the name of “respect” of his customs.
His lawyer told a Scottish court the Muslim restaurant owner has one wife in Motherwell and another in Glasgow - he is allowed up to four under his religion - and sleeps with them on alternate nights.
On the face of it, driving above the speed limit is illegal; even considering that man’s laudable aim to get lucky twice in a day we’re far from a medical emergency there. Normally, such an excuse would have landed the guy in jail, with a roommate named Ben…
This is because polygamy is far from being an acceptable practice. Aside from the fact that few average men who can convince different women to “share” him, it is frowned upon in both the religious and secular realm.
Polygamy in Islam
To be sure, there is a confusion among many circles about polygamy. Yes, Islam does not provide an explicit prohibition of polygamy. But neither do Judaism nor Christianity. The prohibition "evolved" over time.
Crucially, Islam was innovative in this respect, maybe because it had to address the societal ills of the "Jahiliya". Rather than avoiding the issue, it addressed it head on. It does not regard polygamy as a substitute for monogamy.
Islam talks about polygamy only where it concerns "oppressed or the orphans among women". And yes, it is allowed by (Al-Nisa-4:3):
If you fear that you shall not be able to deal justly with the orphans, marry women of your choice, two or three, or four; but if you fear that you shall not be able to deal justly (with them) then only one.
Then, much like all religions, Islam quickly provides a cautionary note (Al-Nisa-4:3):
You are never able to be fair and just between women even if that were your ardent desire.
As you can see, the issue is therefore more delicate than reported, and it remains far from settled. In this context, the practice of polygamy that endures is not rooted in the Koran, but owes far more to a still dynamic "Jahiliya" societal practice. Much of is based on a biased interpretation of the texts, and an excessive focus on “hadith” and tradition, often at the expense of logic.
In Secular Societies
In secular societies, the equality of rights means that polygamy is illegal. But the case of England is interesting.
While polygamy was originally prohibited in Britain because of arguments grounded on the Christian view of marriage in that country, those arguments have now "metamorphosed into the unacceptability of the custom on grounds of ‘community relations' or the norms of gender equality and human rights."
So now equality is a “Christian mental construct”? What kind of ignorant racists came up with that? And worse, what kind of arrogant racists (are set to) accept that?
We’re far from Ibn-Rushd here. The ancient Andalousian had understood that the Prophet Mohammad had not only to preach a religion, but also to reform with a brutal “Jahiliya” society. In the Arab society of the time, women were not merely treated as second-class citizens, but as property, with few rights. Capitalism can be a hard opponent, and its “Jahiliya” form no less than any other.
His ideas were extrapolated to Christianity, and when adapted by Saint Thomas Aquinas, they strongly influenced the Renaissance in the West, which brought about our modern, secular-universal values. Modern Islamic scholars, however, are reverted back to earlier interpretations of the “Jahiliya”, when women were treated as real estate…
Interestingly, the few Islamic Feminists who dare opposing them find little support in the West, into which the “Jahiliya” ideals are now trickling back.
Maybe Rome just got tired...
Waste of Oxygen
I guess that such “eating the air” were “guarbajized” during the days of the “last breath” of Rome.
It is possible that, before Atilla came along, some guy had argued to the Roman courts for the right to carry out some odd “practice” sanctioned by his religion. It would be interesting to see if some historian carried out some sleuthing among archives of Roman courts, and looked at the pattern of cases and judgments…
Whatever archives did not get destroyed during the fall of Rome, that is. So welcome to the dark ages. In a sense, Western extremists are (w)right;
SOLIDA:. There are more than 400 Lebanese citizens still rotting in Syrian Jails, and the government does nothing about it. Quite the opposite, in fact.
Jeha sold his house for a ridiculously low price. But he had one condition; “on one of the walls there is a Nail I do not want to sell". The buyer agreed; after all, what did he need the nail for? After a few days, Jeha came back to the house “to visit his nail”. He soon hung his coat on it, then brought his bed and started to sleep there, to stay close to the nail. Then he brought his family to visit the nail… In the end, the only way the new owner could get rid of him was to buy the nail for a price many times higher than that of the house... This goes to tell you; we may leave Lebanon, but we will NEVER sell that nail.
A Very well researched monograph by on the problems on the southern boundary of Lebanon from the time it was first established by the French and British after World War I. It covers the Zionist thirst for the waters of the Litani, the impotence of the Lebanese government and its neglect of the South and its inhabitants, the PLO, Israel's policies and actions, and finally the Israeli invasions of 1978 and 1982.
"The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy", By Matthew Simmons..
The focus is on Saudi Arabia, home to the largest proven reserves. It is based on analysis of technical papers by ARAMCO engineers. The largest and most productive fields may be at peak production, and current high production is shortening their productive lives. New Saudi fields are unlikely to replace them; extensive exploration has produced little. Soon, Saudi production may not reach the expected 15-20 million BPD.
I like books that challenge orthodox ideology and make you think. Otherwise, we have plain vanilla CNN and Al-Jazeera, each pandering to their lowest common denominator. Such books, however, have to be methodical and well reasoned. You may or may not like what they tell you, and you others yet disprove their findings, but you can find no fault with the method. I find that I learn a lot in the process.
This is easily a “groundbreaking and essential” book. Tim Flannery “argues passionately for the urgent need to address - NOW - the implications of a global climate change that is damaging all life on earth and endangering our very survival”. I have little to add to that…
By answering two question;: “when was the Bible written?” and “why was it written?”, the author places the Hebrew Bible in its historical/social context, and much of it becomes clearer to understand. He also unwittingly illuminates the pre-Islamic Arab word…
"There are lies, damned lies and statistics"… Enough said, go read the book. The math is not too hard, and it should be required reading for anyone who is ever planning in discussing numbers. There are timeless classic; this is one of them.
This is a reading of the Koran from the perspective of the ancient Jahiliyya dialects, closer in some respects to an Aramaic-Arabic mixed language than to modern Arabic. A challenging read and many may consider that the author oversimplifies. But it makes you think and ponder, and the author makes many excellent points.
Many will disagree strongly with Prof. Saliby’s conclusions, many of which fly in the face of archeological evidence. True, this once acclaimed Lebanese historian now apparently belongs to the group of “everyone's got it wrong, I've got it right" conspiracy theorists, but he does raise a few good questions. The mental exercise of debunking him when he overreaches is worth it; all too often, we tend to forget those aspects of Monotheism that go back to Akhenaton…
Second, it demonstrates that we’ve been barking up the wrong occupier. Those who fear “Saudization of Lebanon” under Hariri better take heed. We have lost much more than a presidential "chair" warmer. What may have started as a Syrian occupation has now turned into an Iranian takeover of Lebanon, if not the entire Levant. This indicates that Lebanon may not be a failed state as much as a “pod-state”, a bystander to its own demise, taken over by a parasitic Hezb’O’State.
With the above in mind, consider that 
Now, mix both implications. Add a zest of Arab-Iranian rivalry, and a pinch of a “frozen” Palestinian issue. 
