From misery can opportunity arise...
Something good may come of this "almost civil war" of ours... Rather than a weak president, Michel Suleiman has the potential to rise to become a powerful statesman. His lack of a strong support base needs not be a hindrance, because of the strongly antagonistic position of the country’s two powerful “March” Movements.
Recent events will likely give Hezb a much needed boost, as the Israelis are set to release Kuntar, that brave child slayer we burned
“Nasrallah has a problem. Most Lebanese want a real state and most Shiites don't want another war with
But Nasrallah will not see it this way; buoyed by the prisoner exchange, Hezb “will be running on fumes”, and he will keep on digging. However, as he digs himself deeper in this trap, he will risks dragging us down with him.
Hariri’s Waiting Game
Not all of us will go quietly, but few of us can afford to make much of a fuss; when you’re in deep voodoo up to your neck, the last thing to do is to make waves.
So, as Hezb crows, the Hariri camp sulks. But they will not stay idle. In the immediate, they will focus on bread and butter issues. They have little option left but to play the waiting game and hope for the other side to stumble, or for the regional equation to change in their favour. They may have a (slim) chance. For one, Hezb’s high-wire act leaves them little room for manoeuvre. For another, and for all their faults, those who claim March 14th are closer to the real preoccupations of the Lebanese.
If they fail, Nasrallah's victory will be short-lived, and his self-proclaimed "Party of God" will soon be facing another Salafi-inspired party of God with a rival claim to those Fourty Houris [Note: some translate it as "virgins", but another reading could just as well lead to "wild raisins". But nuts would be harder sell... Anyway, I digress. Back to us nuts]... In the immediate, we’re all desperate for one thing; that this coming tourist season be successful; it will not only make up for the lost opportunities of the past two years, but the funds would help keep the other well-funded nasties at bay.
“The Lebanese focus now on a promising summer with investment inflows. They focus on the formation of a government that enshrines the desire to build an independent, sovereign state”
A Sehabi opening?
This time, however, the key of
To most of us peones, Michel Suleiman remains a great unknown. Were he to try, Michel Suleiman will not be alone is his efforts; by taking the side of reason, he has to chance to become the arbiter that Michel Claoun could never become. So far, there are signs that he is, rather shrewdly, sticking to the letter of the law. Such principled behaviour would earn him much kudos, and could allow him to wipe out Orangebutt from the political scene by providing those Christians opposed to the Hakaym with an acceptable political alternative.
It is High Time…
There is indeed a great potential there. There is a feeling among most people in all confessional groups that we need to move on. It is high time we Lebanese marched past the bickering of the Ba’ath nostalgiacs of March 8th and the whiners who usurp March 14th. It is high time we live up to the dreams of the martyrs. It is high time we did more than pay lip service to the memories of the victims. It is high time a wise person came along to save the Lebanese child from the bickering of rival clans who both usurp its paternity.
…And it is time we do not have;
“The Lebanese have to lead—the world will follow. This might be the realistic, perhaps even the noble, way of handling a country. The problem is that the decisions the Lebanese have recently made only increase the likelihood that they will eventually be abandoned by the international community[…] So will
Let’s hope the first among those Lebanese will decide correctly. Never in our history was there as much riding on the smarts and manoeuvring skills of a single person.