Tuesday, March 03, 2009


Check out this excellent article by the Middle of the East, especially the part in which it refers to this piece in The National.


Was July 2006 a large scale Coventry?


Anonymous said...

The July 2006 war was not another Coventry. One just has to take very seriously Israel's report that it killed 600-800 Hizballah fighters. Hizballah lost more than it cares to admit. Naturally, Israel did not want to insist it was right.

Even with good intel, you can have bad plans, and the Israeli plan just to bomb all the targets it got from its intel was not a good one. It did not stop the short range rockets which were mostly hidden in fields. Also, Hizballah did hide behind the population, so Israel's hands were tied.

Hizballah will have a heck of a time moving everything it built since 2006. This is good for Lebanon since it means Hizballah will not be ready for another war for a long time.

Jeha said...

Makes sense, except for the "good for Lebanon" part.

Whatever one thinks of Hezb, it represents a powerful ideology, and ideologies cannot be defeated by the force of arms.

|3run0 said...

"Whatever one thinks of Hezb, it represents a powerful ideology, and ideologies cannot be defeated by the force of arms."

Not necessarily. The ability of any ideology to attract adepts rests, on the long term, on its perceived success. For a militant ideology (or a 'culture of resistence'), this means military success. HA gained a lot of respect and support after the Israeli withdrawal in 2000. Likewise, if Israel (hypothetically) beat them decisively over and over again, they will likely lose support. The previous generation of Israel's foes, pan-arabists and baathists, have ideologically faded from view largely because of their consistent proclivity to get beaten by the IDF. By the same token, jihadism became popular largely from its (real or perceived) successes in the battlefield.

BTW, HA has been moving away from the more lunatic jihadi tactics (suicide bombing and the like) for a while now. But generally, while jihadis are largely undeterred by the prospect of death, and seem to be able to regenerate losses easily, they have shown time and again that they are deterrable by a high likelihood of failure. To put in another way, suicide bombers will go forward on the face of certain death, but not near certain failure.